Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lecce win with a probability of 44.47%. A win for Parma had a probability of 28.61% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lecce win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.83%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest Parma win was 0-1 (9.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.