Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 57.01%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Bologna had a probability of 21.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.14%) and 2-0 (8.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.13%), while for a Bologna win it was 1-2 (5.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.