Copa Sudamericana
Oct 21, 2026 1.30am
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Vasco da Gama vs Boca Juniors - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Vasco da Gama

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last game
Oct 14, 2026 1.30am
Boca Juniors 0 - 1 Vasco

Boca Juniors

All competitions
Copa Sudamericana
Last game
Oct 14, 2026 1.30am
Boca Juniors 0 - 1 Vasco

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 47.52%. A draw has a probability of 27.17% and a win for Boca Juniors has a probability of 25.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win is 1-0 with a probability of 12.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.41%) and 2-0 (8.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (12.71%) , while for a Boca Juniors win it is 0-1 (8.36%).

Result

Vasco da Gama 47.52% ▲ (+0.31)
Draw 27.17% ▼ (-0.15)
Boca Juniors 25.28% ▼ (-0.21)

Both Teams to Score: 

48.46% ▼ (-0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 70.05% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 1.5 29.95% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 2.5 44.65% ▼ (-0.15)
Under 2.5 55.35% ▲ (+0.15)
Over 3.5 23.06% ▼ (-0.16)
Under 3.5 76.94% ▲ (+0.19)
Over 4.5 12.41% ▼ (-0.13)
Under 4.5 87.59% ▲ (+0.14)

First Half Winner

Vasco da Gama 35.73% ▲ (+0.45)
Draw 44.2% ▲ (+0.31)
Boca Juniors 20.08% ▼ (-0.75)

Team To Score First

Vasco da Gama 56.7% ▲ (+1.09)
No Goal 9.02% ▼ (-0.09)
Boca Juniors 34.28% ▼ (-1.00)

Corners

Over 8 52.22% ▲ (+5.00)
Equal 8 11.64% ▲ (+0.46)
Under 8 36.14% ▼ (-5.43)
Over 9 40.87% ▲ (+4.17)
Equal 9 11.35% ▲ (+0.83)
Under 9 47.78% ▼ (-5.00)
Over 10.5 30.67% ▲ (+3.14)
Under 10.5 69.33% ▼ (-3.13)

Vasco da Gama Goals

Over 1.5 41.88% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 1.5 58.12% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 2.5 17.86% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 2.5 82.14% ▲ (+0.05)
Over 3.5 5.79% ▼ (-0.17)
Under 3.5 94.21% ▲ (+0.16)

Boca Juniors Goals

Over 0.5 59.53% ▼ (-0.15)
Under 0.5 40.47% ▲ (+0.15)
Over 1.5 24.86% ▼ (-0.17)
Under 1.5 75.14% ▲ (+0.16)
Over 2.5 7.69% ▼ (-0.07)
Under 2.5 92.31% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 3.5 1.96% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 3.5 98.04% ▲ (+0.02)

Score analysis

Vasco da Gama 47.52%
Draw 27.16%
Boca Juniors 25.29%
Vasco da Gama
1-0 @ 12.54% ▲ (+0.14)
2-1 @ 9.41% ▲ (+0.01)
2-0 @ 8.66% ▲ (+0.13)
3-0 @ 4.56% ▲ (+0.03)
3-1 @ 4.19% ▲ (+0.03)
3-2 @ 2.5% ▲ (+0.11)
Other @ 5.66% ▼ (-0.13)
Total : 47.52%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.71% ▲ (+0.11)
0-0 @ 9.02% ▼ (-0.09)
2-2 @ 4.48% ▼ (-0.10)
Other @ 0.13% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 27.16%
Boca Juniors
0-1 @ 8.36% ▼ (-0.12)
1-2 @ 6.16% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 4.03% ▼ (-0.09)
1-3 @ 1.98% ▲ (+0.07)
2-3 @ 1.47% ▼ (-0.07)
0-3 @ 1.46% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 1.83% ▲ (+0.03)
Total : 25.29%

Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
Oct 14, 2026 1.30am
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT Estadio Alberto José Armando
  • Milton Delgado 8' yellowcard
  • goal Adson 25'
  • yellowcard Adson 44'
  • yellowcard Santiago Sosa 51'
  • yellowcard Andrés Gómez 63'
  • redcard Andrés Gómez 64'