Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

May 14, 2025 at 1.30am UK

Estadio Nacional Julio Martinez Pradanos

Universidad
4 - 0
Carabobo

Sepulveda (30', 30'), Aranguiz (65' pen., 65' pen.), Zaldivia (81', 81'), Poblete (90', 90')
Zaldivia (70'), Zaldivia (70')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Hernandez (13'), Hernandez (13'), Congo (36'), Congo (36'), Aponte (83'), Aponte (83')

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Universidad de Chile and Carabobo.

Form, Standings, Stats

Universidad de Chile

Last Game: Universidad 0-3 Estudiantes
Thursday, May 8 at 1am in Copa Libertadores

Carabobo

Last Game: Carabobo 1-2 Botafogo
Tuesday, May 6 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universidad de Chile win with a probability of 59.66%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Carabobo had a probability of 15.91%.

The most likely scoreline for a Universidad de Chile win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.87%) and 2-1 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.11%), while for a Carabobo win it was 0-1 (6.82%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Universidad de Chile would win this match.

Result
Universidad de Chile	Draw	Carabobo
59.66% ( -0.36)	24.43% ( 0.18)	15.91% ( 0.18)

Both teams to score 40.65% (

-0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.32% (

-0.35)

58.68% (

0.35)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.78% (

-0.27)

79.22% (

0.27)

Universidad de Chile Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.42% (

-0.27)

19.58% (

0.27)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.49% (

-0.45)

51.51% (

0.44)

Carabobo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

50.55% (

0.04)

49.45% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.73% (

0.03)

84.27% (

-0.03)

Score Analysis

Universidad de Chile 59.65%

Carabobo 15.91%

Draw 24.42%

Universidad de Chile	Draw	Carabobo
1-0 @ 15.78% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 12.87% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 9.07% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 7% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 4.93% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 2.85% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 2.01% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 0.93% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.48% Total : 59.65%	1-1 @ 11.11% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 9.68% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 3.19% ( -0) Other @ 0.44% Total : 24.42%	0-1 @ 6.82% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 3.92% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 2.4% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.86% Total : 15.91%