Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruz Azul win with a probability of 43.96%. A win for Monterrey had a probability of 32.65% and a draw had a probability of 23.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruz Azul win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.26%) and 0-2 (6.46%). The likeliest Monterrey win was 1-0 (7.75%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.