Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 36.71%. A win for Shanghai Shenhua had a probability of 35.61% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.9%) and 0-2 (6.66%). The likeliest Shanghai Shenhua win was 1-0 (10.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.