Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sichuan Jiuniu win with a probability of 39.55%. A win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 35.1% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sichuan Jiuniu win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.61%) and 0-2 (6.42%). The likeliest Beijing Guoan win was 1-0 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sichuan Jiuniu would win this match.