Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Henan win with a probability of 50.95%. A win for Shandong Taishan had a probability of 26.36% and a draw had a probability of 22.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Henan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.03%) and 2-0 (7.08%). The likeliest Shandong Taishan win was 1-2 (6.61%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.