Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shenzhen win with a probability of 59.45%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Guangzhou had a probability of 18.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shenzhen win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.54%) and 1-2 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.53%), while for a Guangzhou win it was 1-0 (5.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.