Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wuhan Three Towns win with a probability of 40.2%. A win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 34.21% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wuhan Three Towns win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.67%) and 0-2 (6.67%). The likeliest Beijing Guoan win was 1-0 (8.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wuhan Three Towns would win this match.