Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 46.08%. A win for Changchun Yatai had a probability of 30.16% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.22%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Changchun Yatai win was 1-2 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.