Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 53.61%. A win for Dalian Pro had a probability of 23.6% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.26%) and 2-0 (8.53%). The likeliest Dalian Pro win was 1-2 (6.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.