The Chicago Fire will try to end their three-game homestand on a winning note when they welcome the Columbus Crew to Soldier Field on Sunday.
Chicago won for the first time in six games last weekend, while the defending MLS Cup champs dropped a third successive fixture, 3-2, to Atlanta United.
Match preview
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The Fire started quickly against the Red Bulls last Sunday, going up 2-0 after only eight minutes of play, but unlike what has happened in previous weeks, they were able to maintain that early momentum and come away with three points.
Raphael Wicky has praised his team for their solid defending this month, keeping a potent New York City FC side at bay and then holding the Red Bulls scoreless until deep into injury time.
The backline are starting to understand their roles on the team more and more over the past few weeks, while also being more responsible and picking the right moments to press high up the pitch.
Since losing 5-1 to Nashville, Chicago have kept the majority of their matches tight, but their undoing has been a few critical errors which have cost them three points.
They still have a long way to go to get into a playoff position, but there seems to be more chemistry and scoring balance with this side over the past few games.
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One MLS side that are lacking continuity at the moment seems to be the Columbus Crew, who are barely clinging to the final playoff position in the Eastern Conference, just a point above CF Montreal.
After an emotional road win against Atlanta United in July, manager Caleb Porter called out the media, claiming that they were not showing enough respect to the reigning champions.
Since those comments, his team have not got any more respect, losing three games in a row, and they have been outscored 11-5 over that stretch.
Given their recent struggles, along with the number of games played and the short turnarounds they have had in between those matches, this team needed a break, and while this is not a lengthy one, Columbus are currently in the midst of their first full week in between fixtures in a month.
A club that allowed the second-fewest goals in MLS a year ago are struggling to keep the ball out of their net this year, conceding multiple goals on six separate occasion in 2021.
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Team News
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Fire midfielder Luka Stojanovic earned his first career brace for the team scoring twice in the opening eight minutes last Sunday, while goalkeeper Bobby Shuttleworth returned to the starting lineup against the Red Bulls after missing their match last Wednesday with a knee injury.
Ignacio Aliseda missed the last game with a calf injury, Alvaro Medran was ruled out due to health and safety protocols, Elliot Collier made his first appearance since July 7 and Carlos Teran made his second career start for Chicago last weekend and his first since June 19.
Johan Kappelhof sat out of their last match, Fabian Herbers replaced Medran in midfield and Chinonso Offor started in place of Stanislav Ivanov.
The Crew are still missing a slew of players through injury, including Aidan Morris and Perry Kitchen with left knee problems, Artur has a right hip issue, Milton Valenzuela is out with a right thigh injury, while Vito Wormgoor is suffering from the same issue and Josh Williams is questionable with a left ankle problem.
Gyasi Zardes started against the Five Stripes, his first start with the club since July 3, while Jonathan and Pedro Santos each notched their second goals of the season in their defeat last weekend.
Lucas Zelarayan has a goal and an assist in his last two matches, leading the team with six strikes this season and adding another two helpers.
Chicago Fire possible starting lineup:
Shuttleworth; Teran, Pineda, Omsberg, Calvo; Gimenez; Bornstein, Herbers, Stojanovic, Collier, Beric
Columbus Crew possible starting lineup:
Room; Abdul-Salaam, Jonathan, Fraser, Santos; Nagbe, Hairston; Etienne, Zelarayan; Wright-Phillips, Zardes
We say: Chicago Fire 3-2 Columbus Crew
Chicago have scored 14 goals over their last seven matches played at Soldier Field, but they still tend to make a couple of costly mental errors, preventing them from moving up the standings.
Columbus are in their biggest slump since 2019 and will be desperate to respond with a big game, but this team has not shown any signs of improvement lately, and Caleb Porter is struggling to find the right formula for success.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 47.36%. A win for Columbus Crew had a probability of 27.21% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (8.44%). The likeliest Columbus Crew win was 0-1 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Chicago Fire in this match.
