Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nottingham Forest win with a probability of 44.29%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for Barnsley had a probability of 27.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nottingham Forest win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.81%) and 2-1 (8.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.03%), while for a Barnsley win it was 0-1 (10.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nottingham Forest would win this match.