Luton Town will be bidding to strengthen their grip on a playoff spot in the Championship when they make the trip to Wales on Monday afternoon to take on Cardiff City.
The visitors are currently fourth in the table, five points ahead of seventh-placed Middlesbrough, while Cardiff occupy 17th position, 18 points clear of the relegation zone.
Match preview
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Cardiff have finished fifth and eighth in their last two Championship campaigns, but the Welsh outfit have found it difficult to compete this season, with the club currently sitting down in 17th position in the table.
A record of 14 wins, seven draws and 20 defeats from 41 matches has seen them collect 49 points, which is only enough for 17th position, some 16 points off the playoff positions.
Cardiff have won two and lost two of their last four league matches, beating Stoke City and Reading, in addition to losing to Swansea City and Hull City, but they did overcome Derby County and Queens Park Rangers in back-to-back games at the start of March, so there have been positive signs in recent weeks.
Steve Morison's side have the fourth-worst home record in the Championship this season, though, picking up just 24 points from 21 matches, which will need to change next term if they are to push higher up the division.
The Bluebirds have actually won each of their last four Championship matches against Luton, including a 2-1 victory in the reverse match earlier this season, while they won 4-0 in Wales in November 2020.
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Luton, meanwhile, will enter the contest off the back of a 1-0 win over Nottingham Forest on Friday, with Kal Naismith scoring the only goal of the contest from the penalty spot late in the first period.
Nathan Jones's side are in an excellent position to claim a playoff spot in the Championship this season, currently sitting fourth in the table, five points clear of seventh-placed Middlesbrough.
Luton are actually only six points behind second-placed Bournemouth, but the Cherries have two games spare and are the overwhelming favourites to secure an automatic promotion position alongside Fulham.
The Hatters have never played in the Premier League, and considering their recent rise through the leagues, it would be some story if they managed to secure promotion to the top level of English football for 2022-23.
There is still work to do between now and the end of the regular season, though, and they still have to face leaders Fulham at Craven Cottage on the penultimate weekend before welcoming Reading on May 7.
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Team News
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Cardiff will be missing Sean Morrison, Max Watters and Alex Smithies through injury for Monday's Championship clash with their playoff-chasing opponents.
Due to the relatively quick turnaround, head coach Morison is likely to shuffle his pack, with Rubin Colwill, Tommy Doyle and Jordan Hugill all pushing for recalls to the starting side.
There are not expected to be any alterations in central midfield, though, with Ryan Wintle and Will Vaulks set to retain their starting roles, while Aden Flint will again operate in the middle of the defence.
As for Luton, Sonny Bradley was sent off in the latter stages of the win over Nottingham Forest on Friday, so there will have to be a change to the away side's back three for this match.
Bradley's absence will open the door for Tom Lockyer to start at the back, but the visitors could otherwise be unchanged from the side that took to the field for the first whistle against the Reds.
Indeed, a lengthy injury list still includes Pelly-Ruddock Mpanzu, Jed Steer, Gabriel Osho, Alex Palmer, Cameron Jerome and Henri Lansbury, so there are limited options for change.
Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Phillips; Drameh, Flint, Nelson, Bagan; Vaulks, Wintle; Colwill, Doyle, Harris; Hugill
Luton Town possible starting lineup:
Shea; Burke, Lockyer, Bell; Bree, Naismith, Campbell, Onyedinma; Snodgrass; Cornick, Adebayo
We say: Cardiff City 1-2 Luton Town
Cardiff do not have too much to play for between now and the end of the season, but the same cannot be said for Luton, who have the fifth-best away record in the Championship this season. We are expecting a tight match on Monday afternoon but believe that the visitors will have enough to secure a huge three points.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 40.48%. A win for Cardiff City had a probability of 32.14% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.4%) and 0-2 (7.47%). The likeliest Cardiff City win was 1-0 (9.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Luton Town in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Luton Town.
