Sutton United face Cardiff City in South Wales on Tuesday evening in their first ever EFL Cup tie.
The Us fell to a late 2-1 loss against Forest Green Rovers in their opening League Two fixture on Saturday, while Cardiff played out a 1-1 draw with Barnsley.
Match preview
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Sutton were on course for a well-earned point against Forest Green after Omar Bugiel cancelled out Matty Stevens' opener, only for Ebou Adams to strike in the 91st minute.
That was a cruel blow for Matt Gray's side in their first ever English Football League fixture, having earned promotion as National League champions last season.
While survival in League Two is the aim for Sutton, they will also take this midweek cup tie with Cardiff seriously as they tick off another major milestone.
Cardiff are themselves looking to bounce back from a slightly underwhelming opening result to their Championship campaign as they were held at home by Barnsley.
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Marlon Pack headed City in front with a little under 10 minutes of the second half played, but Toby Sibbick equalised 15 minutes later in what was an entertaining contest.
Promotion to the Premier League will be the Bluebirds' aim in 2021-22, and boss Mick McCarthy will know that an improvement will be needed from his side if they are to achieve that.
Advancing to round two of the EFL Cup will be McCarthy's more immediate target, though 2012 EFL Cup runners-up Cardiff have a poor recent record in this competition.
The Welsh side have lost their last four matches by an aggregate score of 11-2, and they have been eliminated in three of their last four ties against teams from a lower division.
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Team News
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With this cup tie sandwiched between two important league games for both sides, changes can be expected from the opening weekend.
Sutton's lineup is not too dissimilar to that from last season, with Enzio Boldewijn the only summer signing to start against Forest Green.
Richie Bennett and Ricky Korboa were used as substitutes at the New Lawn and may be used from the first whistle on Tuesday evening.
As for Cardiff, star man Kieffer Moore is being eased back to fitness after representing Wales at Euro 2020 and was only deemed ready for a 15-minute cameo against Barnsley.
Moore could be handed a first start of the season in midweek, though, while Mark Harris and Ryan Wintle are also pushing for inclusion.
McCarthy hopes to bed in some youngsters this season, and this seems like as good a time as any to give minutes to the likes of Sam Bowen and Rubin Colwill.
Will Vaulks is also expected to start after missing the Barnsley draw through a suspension carried over from the end of last season.
Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Smithies; McGuiness, Morrison, Nelson; Ng, Vaulks, Colwill, Bagan; Harris, Giles; Moore
Sutton United possible starting lineup:
Bouzanis; Goodliffe, John, Milson; Barden, Beautyman, Eastmond, Korboa; Ajiboye, Bugiel; Bennett
We say: Cardiff City 2-1 Sutton United
This will be an historic occasion for Sutton in what is their first ever EFL Cup tie.
They head into this maiden fixture with Cardiff as underdogs, though the Bluebirds hardly have the best of records in this competition.
Still, we can see the hosts prevailing in a tight contest to advance through to round two.
Top tip
Daniel Lewis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 44.37%. A win for Sutton United had a probability of 30.43% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.12%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Sutton United win was 0-1 (7.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cardiff City would win this match.
