Burton Albion are scheduled to finally end their three-week break from action on Saturday with a home fixture against Crewe Alexandra.
While the home side still sit safety in the mid-table positions in the League One standings, Crewe have recently moved to within four points of getting out of the relegation zone courtesy of two wins from three matches.
Match preview
© Reuters
Having lost four of their last six fixtures in League One, Burton have been lacking momentum, and that has been prolonged with numerous cancellations throughout December.
The Brewers had been scheduled to return from their coronavirus-enforced break earlier this week against Bolton Wanderers, only for their opponents to have their own outbreak.
In the build-up to this match, assistant boss Dino Maamria has spoken optimistically about how Burton could perform over the following weeks and months, but they desperately need points on the board as soon as possible.
Regardless of their matches in hand, Burton are 14 points adrift of the playoffs, and focus should perhaps be placed on ensuring that they do not get dragged closer to the relegation zone.
Last time out on December 11, Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink's team were competitive at leaders Rotherham United, only trailing 2-1 heading into the closing stages before the Millers added a third with six minutes remaining.
There was a time earlier this season when Crewe seemed somewhat of a lost cause when it came to League One survival, a consequence of winning just one of their opening 17 matches.
However, three victories from their last six outings, the latest coming by a 2-1 scoreline against rivals Morecambe on Wednesday, has moved them back into contention to move outside of the bottom four.
Much works lies ahead if they wish to remain in the third tier, but the 18-day break ahead of their most recent outing has seemingly only benefitted them.
The form of veteran Chris Porter has proven pivotal since November, the 38-year-old contributing three goals and two assists in seven outings.
- L
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
- L
- W
- L
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Barring any issues relating to coronavirus, Hasselbaink may feel content with naming the same team which troubled Rotherham three weeks ago.
Daniel Jebbison is a different option in the final third, while Michael Mancienne is an alternative in defence or central midfield.
As for Crewe, David Artell could hand a recall to Kanye Ramsey, who came off the substitutes' bench in midweek for just his second outing since October.
The Southampton loanee may potentially replace Rio Adebisi, although fellow wing-back Callum Ainley could also drop out of the team.
With Artell pleased with his team's performance on the North-West coast, the rest of the team may stay the same.
Burton Albion possible starting lineup:
Garratt; Shaughnessy, Leak, Borthwick-Jackson; Akins, Taylor, Oshilaja, Hamer; Lakin, Chapman; Hemmings
Crewe Alexandra possible starting lineup:
Richards; Ainley, Offord, Sass-Davies, Williams, Ramsey; Lowery, Murphy, Finney; Porter, Mandron
We say: Burton Albion 1-1 Crewe Alexandra
While Burton are better placed in the standings, Crewe's momentum and extra game time effectively cancels that out. With that in mind, we are backing a competitive draw in Staffordshire, even if a point apiece would not be satisfactory for either manager.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burton Albion win with a probability of 53.36%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 22.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burton Albion win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 2-0 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.32%), while for a Crewe Alexandra win it was 0-1 (6.58%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Burton Albion would win this match.
