Bundesliga Gameweek 8
Oct 30, 2026 7.30pm
URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde

Elversberg vs Mainz 05 - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Elversberg

All competitions
Last game
Oct 24, 2026 2.30pm
RB Leipzig 4 - 0 Elversberg
Goals scored
12
Top scorer
Maurice Krattenmacher

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last game
Oct 24, 2026 2.30pm
Mainz 2 - 3 Werder Bremen
Goals scored
16
Top scorer
Phillip Tietz

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 45.61%. A win for Elversberg has a probability of 29.85% and a draw has a probability of 24.51%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win is 1-2 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (5.8%) and 0-2 (5.71%). The likeliest Elversberg win is 2-1 (6.78%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.26%).

Result

Elversberg 29.85% ▼ (-0.10)
Draw 24.51% ▼ (-0.07)
Mainz 05 45.61% ▲ (+0.15)

Both Teams to Score: 

64.98% ▲ (+0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 85.31% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 1.5 14.69% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 2.5 65.73% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 2.5 34.27% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 44.1% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 3.5 55.86% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 4.5 28.35% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 4.5 71.65% ▲ (+0.03)

First Half Winner

Elversberg 28.34% ▼ (-0.11)
Draw 38.15% ▲ (+0.12)
Mainz 05 33.51% ▼ (-0.02)

Team To Score First

Elversberg 46.97% ▼ (-0.14)
No Goal 4.13% ▼ (-0.01)
Mainz 05 48.9% ▲ (+0.15)

Corners

Over 8 59.07% ▼ (-0.48)
Equal 8 10.47% ▼ (-0.14)
Under 8 30.46% ▲ (+0.63)
Over 9 48.29% ▼ (-0.32)
Equal 9 10.78% ▼ (-0.19)
Under 9 40.93% ▲ (+0.48)
Over 10.5 38.02% ▼ (-0.13)
Under 10.5 61.98% ▲ (+0.13)

Elversberg Goals

Over 1.5 39.07% ▼ (-0.16)
Under 1.5 60.93% ▲ (+0.16)
Over 2.5 17.8% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 2.5 82.2% ▲ (+0.08)
Over 3.5 6.58% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 3.5 93.42% ▲ (+0.05)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5 79.52% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 0.5 20.48% ▼ (-0.06)
Over 1.5 53.12% ▲ (+0.09)
Under 1.5 46.88% ▼ (-0.09)
Over 2.5 28.32% ▲ (+0.09)
Under 2.5 71.68% ▼ (-0.08)
Over 3.5 13.22% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 3.5 86.78% ▼ (-0.04)

Score analysis

Elversberg 29.84%
Draw 24.52%
Mainz 05 45.62%
Elversberg
2-1 @ 6.78% ▼ (-0.01)
1-0 @ 4.74%
2-0 @ 3.6% ▼ (-0.03)
3-1 @ 3.56% ▼ (-0.03)
3-2 @ 3.17% ▼ (-0.02)
3-0 @ 2.18%
Other @ 5.81% ▼ (-0.04)
Total : 29.84%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.26% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 7.05% ▼ (-0.04)
0-0 @ 4.13% ▼ (-0.01)
3-3 @ 2.31% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 0.77% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 24.52%
Mainz 05
1-2 @ 8.87% ▲ (+0.05)
0-1 @ 5.8%
0-2 @ 5.71%
1-3 @ 5.16% ▲ (+0.04)
2-3 @ 3.84% ▼ (-0.02)
0-3 @ 3.79% ▲ (+0.04)
Other @ 12.45% ▲ (+0.05)
Total : 45.62%

Head to Head

DFB-Pokal
Aug 12, 2023 5.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde
  • Manuel Feil 70' yellowcard
  • Maurice Neubauer 80' yellowcard
  • Manuel Feil 83' redcard
  • goal Ludovic Ajorque 73'
  • yellowcard Stefan Bell 90'+2'
  • yellowcard Sepp van den Berg 90'+6'
DFB-Pokal
Aug 8, 2021 2.30pm
2
2
HT : 0 0
ET URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde
  • Kevin Conrad 46' yellowcard
  • Luca Schnellbacher 73' goal
  • Robin Fellhauer 86' yellowcard
  • Luca Schnellbacher 110' goal
  • yellowcard Moussa Niakhate 69'
  • goal Jonathan Burkardt 89'
  • goal Jonathan Burkardt 116'
  • yellowcard Dominik Kohr 118'