Two sides just three places but seven points apart in the Ligue 1 standings will meet on Sunday afternoon as Brest welcome Troyes to the Stade Francis-Le Ble.
The hosts' comfortable gap to the relegation battle reduced somewhat last weekend, whilst the visitors avoided defeat but nonetheless found themselves suddenly just one point above the danger zone.
Match preview
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Brest's last four games in all competitions have ended with a 2-0 scoreline - unfortunately for the Brittany side, they have been on the wrong end of three of those.
A predictable defeat away at Paris Saint-Germain's Parc des Princes was followed up by an impressive win at home to reigning champions Lille.
However, Les Pirates then fell to consecutive 2-0 losses in the space of a week as they crashed out of the Coupe de France to Nantes and then were beaten by Rennes in the league.
A position of 13th in the standings is still an improvement on their previous two campaigns since returning to the top flight, but their inconsistency continues to hold them back from truly breaking into the tight midtable battle.
Michel Der Zakarian's side will now have one eye over their shoulder at the relegation zone after last weekend saw the teams at the bottom of the table pick up some valuable wins.
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Troyes were not one of those sides as they played out an uneventful 0-0 draw with fellow strugglers Metz.
That could be seen as a decent result for a newly-promoted side in a relegation six-pointer, but the results of those around them meant they actually slipped back towards danger.
ESTAC remain 16th but are now just one point above 19th-placed Bordeaux and three points above rock-bottom Saint-Etienne, who have won their previous two games.
They have shown that they are capable of competing and making life difficult for their opponents in Ligue 1, but the results are rarely there to back it up
That is now just one win in their last seven domestic encounters and five for the season, so if new manager Bruno Irles and his side do not start taking three points more often, they could find themselves slipping into trouble very quickly.
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Team News
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Brest's Lucien Agoume will return to the midfield four, having served his suspension, potentially with Romain Del Castillo to his right filling in for the injured Romain Faivre.
Youcef Belaili had an underwhelming debut in that position and seems the most likely to make way.
Sebastien Cibois and Paul Lasne look set to remain out for another week at least as they recover from achilles and muscles injuries respectively.
For the visitors, Romingue Kouame recovered from injury to play in attacking midfield against Metz and could figure as part of a front three on this occasion.
Issa Kabore and Yoann Touzghar are also available again, having returned from their trip to Cameroon for the Africa Cup of Nations.
Brest possible starting lineup:
Bizot; Pierre-Gabriel, Brassier, Herelle, Duverne; Del Castillo, Agoume, Belkebla, Honorat; Mounie, Douaron
Troyes possible starting lineup:
Gallon; Hajjam, Rami, Salmier; Balde, Tardieu, Chavalerin, Conte; Kouame, Touzghar, Chambost
We say: Brest 1-1 Troyes
Both sides are in somewhat uninspiring form currently and, whilst Brest have home advantage, the visitors have more to play for. With that in mind, we are backing a draw between the two on this occasion that would see both teams go home reasonably content.
Top tip
James Mackenzie
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brest win with a probability of 46.47%. A win for Troyes had a probability of 27.63% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brest win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (8.44%). The likeliest Troyes win was 0-1 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brest would win this match.
