Strasbourg will endeavour to get their European charge back on track when Brest welcome them to the Stade Francis Le Ble for Saturday's Ligue 1 battle.
Julien Stephan's side rescued a 3-3 draw against Paris Saint-Germain in their most recent game, while the hosts saw off Clermont 2-0 for their third win on the bounce.
Match preview
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With the pressure firmly off their shoulders heading into the final three games of the season, Brest are playing with a freedom that could yet see them sneak into the top half of the rankings after winning three games in a row in Ligue 1 for the first time in 2022.
Having already seen off Lyon and Metz this month, Brest put two unanswered goals past Clermont in front of the home crowd last Sunday, with Lilian Brassier and Steve Mounie netting quickfire goals after Romain Del Castillo's early red card.
Les Pirates had to wait until Halloween to claim their first victory of the Ligue 1 season, but a stark upturn in fortunes under Michel Der Zakarian now leaves them in 11th spot and just three points adrift of Lille and Nantes in the top-half places, although they do not face a simple end to the season by any means.
Indeed, Brest must lock horns with another European hopeful in Monaco and a Bordeaux side fighting for their lives at the foot of the table before the final whistle blows on an ultimately promising campaign, but inconsistency has plagued them at the Stade Francis Le Ble.
Der Zakarian's side are out to secure their third Ligue 1 home win on the bounce this weekend, but they had only taken one point from the previous nine on offer before that, and Strasbourg have a lot more to fight for at this stage of the season.
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Capable of making any stadium his playground, PSG hotshot Kylian Mbappe had seemingly guided the reigning champions to a convincing success against Strasbourg with two goals and an assist for Achraf Hakimi to put his side 3-1 to the good.
However, the never-say-die attitude of Strasbourg came to the fore last Friday, as Habib Diallo's effort found its way into the PSG net via Marco Verratti before Anthony Caci sparked wild celebrations by volleying home at the back post in injury time.
Very few could have expected Stephan to have Strasbourg down as Champions League hopefuls this season - although he produced something similar with Rennes before - but a run of just three wins from 11 in Ligue 1 has left Les Coureurs outside of the European spots in sixth place.
There is now a five-point gap to make up to Rennes and Monaco - who face Lille on Friday night - but Nice are still just three points ahead of Strasbourg, who can temporarily draw level with Les Aiglons as they prepare for the Coupe de France final with Nantes.
Failure to convert one point into three has proven to be Strasbourg's downfall more often than not recently, with Stephan overseeing seven stalemates in his side's last 11 games, and it is now five away matches without a win for the European outsiders, who did ease to a 3-1 success over Brest back in August.
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Team News
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Brest attacker Del Castillo has been handed a two-match ban after being given a straight red card in the first half against Clermont, but Der Zakarian has a ready-made solution on the right with Franck Honorat's Achilles injury no longer plaguing him.
Jeremy Le Douaron, Sebastien Cibois and Julien Faussurier also remain absent for the hosts, even though the former was able to take part in team training earlier this week, but he would not have displaced Mounie or Martin Satriano anyway.
Youcef Belaili enjoyed a fine display in the Clermont win and is set to hold his place on the left, while Honorat deputising for Del Castillo should be the only alteration on the hosts' end this weekend.
As for the visitors, Stephan will be forced to rethink his defensive options this weekend, with Frederic Guilbert and Alexander Djiku both serving suspensions for yellow card accumulation.
It would not be surprising to see Caci deputise on the right-hand side for Strasbourg here, while Maxime Le Marchand is the most likely candidate to fill in for Djiku in the heart of the backline.
Nordine Kandil, Abdul Majeed Waris and Marvin Elimbi remain out for the visitors, and Diallo may be consigned to the bench again following Kevin Gameiro's early goal in the draw with PSG.
Brest possible starting lineup:
Bizot; Pierre-Gabriel, Herelle, Chardonnet, Brassier; Honorat, Lasne, Belkebla, Belaili; Mounie, Satriano
Strasbourg possible starting lineup:
Sels; Caci, Nyamsi, Le Marchand, Perrin, Lienard; Bellegarde, Prcic; Thomasson; Ajorque, Gameiro
We say: Brest 2-2 Strasbourg
The return of Honorat against an altered Strasbourg backline is a touch of gold for an in-form Brest side, who can feel optimistic of prolonging Les Coureurs' misery on the road that little bit longer.
However, Gameiro, Diallo and Ludovic Ajorque need no lessons in attacking ruthlessness, so while the defensive suspensions may hit Stephan hard, his side can hit back just as hard to gain a point in a game where no fewer than three will realistically suffice.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Strasbourg win with a probability of 45.22%. A win for Brest had a probability of 28.58% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Strasbourg win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.04%) and 0-2 (8.23%). The likeliest Brest win was 1-0 (8.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Strasbourg in this match.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Strasbourg win with a probability of 45.22%. A win for Brest has a probability of 28.58% and a draw has a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline is Brest 1-1 Strasbourg with a probability of 12.45% and the second most likely scoreline is Brest 0-1 Strasbourg with a probability of 11.34%.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
