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Ligue 1 | Gameweek 24
Feb 7, 2021 at 12pm UK
Stade Francis-Le Blé
Bordeaux

Brest
2 - 1
Bordeaux

Mounie (80'), Faivre (85')
Honorat (90+3')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Ui-jo (56')
Ben Arfa (6'), Koscielny (48'), Basic (51')

Preview: Brest vs. Bordeaux - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Brest and Bordeaux, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Brest will be out to end a five-game winless run in Ligue 1 when they welcome an inconsistent Bordeaux to the Stade Francis-Le Ble on Sunday lunchtime.

The hosts rescued a point from their clash with Strasbourg last time out, whereas Bordeaux were no match for leaders Lille in midweek.


Match preview

Brest coach Olivier Dall'Oglio pictured in January 2020© Reuters

Even though Brest managed to avoid extending their losing run to five matches against Strasbourg, the manner of their performance did little to inspire confidence for the remainder of the season.

On a night to forget for Gautier Larsonneur, the Brest goalkeeper firstly parried into Adrien Thomasson's path for the opener before being caught in no man's land for Jean-Eudes Aholou's strike in the 70th minute, but Strasbourg's number one was hardly in inspired form either.

Indeed, Eiji Kawashima spilled a cross at the feet of Brest's Gaetan Charbonnier before Jeremy Le Douaron came off the bench to level the scores in the dying embers of the match - with that 2-2 result epitomising Brest's prowess going forward and ongoing defensive fragilities.

No team outside of the top four has notched up more goals than Brest's 35 this term, but with 43 goals conceded - including 12 in their last five - only basement side Reims have had their defence breached on more occasions during the 2020-21 campaign.

Having been tipped as outside contenders for a European berth earlier in the campaign, a record of just one win from their last nine outings has seen Olivier Dall'Oglio's men slump to 13th in the standings - eight clear of the bottom three - although they have managed to notch up 16 goals in their last seven home outings, winning four of them.

Bordeaux manager Jean-Louis Gasset pictured in November 2020© Reuters

Bordeaux gave one title-chasing side in Lyon a terrific run for their money last weekend, but a second-half display of attacking dominance from Lille saw them sweep aside Les Girondins on Wednesday evening.

Jean-Louis Gasset's men held their own in the first 45, but the quality of Lille soon shone through as Yusuf Yazici, Timothy Weah and Jonathan David all slotted home to condemn a shell-shocked Bordeaux to back-to-back defeats in the top flight.

Les Girondins had taken 10 points from a possible 12 before their defeats to both title hopefuls, but those two losses in quick succession have seriously hampered their European aspirations and they now lie 10th in the table - five adrift of fifth-placed Rennes having played a game more.

There is no reason for Gasset to press the panic button at this stage, especially seeing as his side travel to the Stade Francis-Le Ble having lost just two of their last seven away matches in the league, as well as keeping three clean sheets from their last four on the road.

Hatem Ben Arfa's winner was enough to propel Bordeaux to victory over Brest earlier in the season - a result which marked Les Girondins' first win over their opponents since the 2011-12 campaign.

Brest Ligue 1 form: WLLLLD

Bordeaux Ligue 1 form: DWWWLL


Team News

Bordeaux manager Jean-Louis Gasset pictured in November 2020© Reuters

Brest's only long-term absentee Denys Bain continues to recover from a cruciate ligament rupture, while Romain Perraud should return after missing out against Strasbourg.

Cristian Battocchio has also been sidelined recently, but the midfielder recently revealed that he was leaving the club to sign for Japanese outfit Tokushima Vortis.

Lyon loanee Jean Lucas was at fault for Strasbourg's second goal at the weekend with a misplaced pass and will be fearing for his spot here, especially with a possible change in formation as Irvin Cardona looks to return to the fold.

Bordeaux have few injury concerns to contend with as well, with Otavio - out for the rest of the season - Mehdi Zerkane and Youssouf Sabaly making up a trio of absentees for the visitors.

Sabaly has been ruled out for at least three weeks with a thigh problem sustained in the loss to Lyon, so Enock Kwateng can look forward to an extended run in the team at right-back.

Further changes are unlikely from Gasset, who recently allowed out-of-favour striker Josh Maja to rejoin Fulham on loan.

Brest possible starting lineup:
Larsonneur; Pierre-Gabriel, Herelle, Chardonnet, Perraud; Honorat, Lasne, Belkebla, Faivre; Mounie, Cardona

Bordeaux possible starting lineup:
Costil; Kwateng, Baysse, Koscielny, Benito; Adli, Basic; Oudin, Ben Arfa, Kalu; Hwang


SM words green background

We say: Brest 1-3 Bordeaux

Finding the back of the net on home soil is Brest's forte, but they are now preparing to do battle with a Bordeaux side who know a thing or two about keeping clean sheets. The loss of Sabaly is a huge blow to the visitors, but they are facing Brest at the best time given their hosts' abysmal spell of form, and we can see Gasset's side getting their European charge back on track with a routine win.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Written by
Ben Knapton

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bordeaux win with a probability of 37.53%. A win for Brest had a probability of 36.75% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bordeaux win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.33%) and 0-2 (6.17%). The likeliest Brest win was 1-0 (8.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Brest vs Bordeaux

Brest
23.8%
Draw
16.7%
Bordeaux
59.5%
42
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9Toulouse156361717021
10Reims155552018220
11Brest145182026-616
12Rennes144281820-214
13NantesNantes143561620-414
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