Brazil World Cup squad: Not Rayan, not Neymar — why Paqueta deserves one of Brazil's last spots

Carlo Ancelotti is due to announce his 26-man Brazil squad for the 2026 World Cup this Monday (18 May). Few surprises are expected, however, the Selecao have built a settled core since the Italian boss took charge, and the March international window brought further certainty.

Barring fresh injuries, there is virtually no room for new faces among the goalkeepers, centre-backs or full-backs. The midfield, meanwhile, appears to have found its fourth member alongside Casemiro, Fabinho and Bruno Guimaraes, Botafogo's Danilo having impressed in the final friendly before the announcement, against Croatia.

That leaves Lucas Paqueta in an awkward position. Close to a certainty at the start of the year, the Flamengo midfielder fell out of contention following a difficult spell after his return to Brazil, and was omitted from the last call-up. Yet he may still force his way in, through the attacking positions.

Paqueta benefits from doubts in Brazil's attacking ranks

Ancelotti is expected to reserve nine places for forwards. Gabriel Martinelli and Vinicius Junior are pencilled in as the left-flank options; Matheus Cunha, Joao Pedro and Igor Thiago — or Igor Jesus — occupy the more central attacking roles; while Raphinha and Luiz Henrique are in line for the right.

That would leave two spots open. Rodrygo is confirmed absent with a knee injury, and Estavao is also almost certain to miss out with a thigh problem.

Endrick has built a strong case for the eighth attacking berth after his decisive contribution against Croatia — winning a penalty and assisting when the score was 1-1 — backed up by consistent form at Lyon since January. He can operate as a right winger, as he has done in France, or as a mobile centre-forward.

The final place, then, appears to be up for grabs. That is where Paqueta comes in. Despite a thigh oedema that kept him out of seven matches between 18 April and 14 May, the Flamengo midfielder had been playing at an exceptional level before that setback.

Flamengo boss Leonardo Jardim had needed the number 20 to fill in as a second defensive midfielder from early April, following injuries in that area — particularly in matches against Fluminense, Independiente Medellin and Bahia — and the player delivered in the role.

When Flamengo build play from the centre circle, Paqueta typically positions himself in front of the three-man build-up unit (two centre-backs and Evertton Araujo). From that deeper position, he has the space to play over the top, relieves pressure with first-time touches, finds passes in behind the opposition defence and effectively dictates which channel the attack develops through.

He is not confined to that zone, however. While he drops between the centre-backs to ease pressure before attempting a more ambitious ball, he also makes late runs into the area to finish, scoring a fine goal from that position to open the rout against Medellin, and netting from a corner against Bahia.

His off-the-ball work has also caught the eye, with the midfielder pressing consistently high and working to recover possession in the opposition half.

As a number eight, the role he has occupied since returning from West Ham at the start of this year, Paqueta is enjoying the best form of his Flamengo career, though he had already shown quality as a left midfielder, right midfielder and number ten after a slow start back.

His versatility is a significant asset for the national team. He can cover for Bruno Guimaraes, Matheus Cunha or even one of the wide forwards, depending on whether a full-back pushes into the channel.

Ancelotti has made no secret of his admiration for the 28-year-old. 'For the quality he has, Paqueta has to be here with us' — the boss said in September last year, after a World Cup qualifying victory over Chile.

'He can play in different ways. Today he played as an attacking midfielder; he can also play as a second defensive midfielder without any problem. He has great quality on the ball' — he added.

Rivals' situations ease Ancelotti's final selection dilemma

Should Ancelotti view that final attacking slot as Paqueta's to lose, his main rivals for the place would be Andrey Santos, Neymar and Rayan. The Santos number ten has finally managed more consistent minutes after a turbulent 2025, completing 90 minutes on seven occasions since April and registering three goals and two assists in that spell.

Neymar, however, has had to be rested on three occasions and also served a one-match suspension, a clear sign that he is not yet able to sustain a run of competitive football. He also opted out of the derby against Palmeiras before the squad announcement, citing the synthetic surface at Allianz Parque as his reason.

There are occasional flashes of the old brilliance, an unlikely pass that sets a team-mate through on goal, or a finish that recalls his peak years at Barcelona, PSG and in his first spell at Santos. Such moments remain rare. In terms of intensity, Neymar contributes little, and technically he falls well short of what is expected of him. Reports suggest, nevertheless, that he will likely receive a last-minute call-up.

Rayan, by contrast, is in outstanding physical shape

The 19-year-old finally fulfilled his potential under Fernando Diniz at Vasco last year, scoring 20 goals. That form earned him a move to Bournemouth, where his physicality, explosive pace and finishing ability produced an almost immediate impact — 11 starts, five goals and two assists.

He received his first senior Brazil call-up during the last international window on the back of those displays in England. Ancelotti gave him just 14 minutes, however, and when asked about the youngster in press conferences, spoke of him as a player for the future, a clear indicator that Rayan is being developed with the 2030 World Cup cycle in mind.

A similar long-term view appears to apply to Andrey Santos, 22, who has largely been a squad player at Chelsea in recent months, made a limited impression during the March international window and underperformed on the occasions he was used. The youngster had looked close to a certainty for the squad, but recent events have cast that in doubt, and he may find himself waiting for the next tournament.

Ancelotti is also in the final stages of agreeing a four-year contract extension that would keep him in charge of the Selecao through the next World Cup as well. For now, the focus is on 2026. Monday's announcement is the first step, with friendlies against Panama and Egypt to follow before Brazil's opening group game against Morocco on 13 June.