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Bournemouth logo
Championship | Gameweek 46
May 7, 2022 at 12.30pm UK
Dean Court
Millwall logo

Bournemouth
1 - 0
Millwall

Moore (81')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Kieftenbeld (68'), Saville (82')

Preview: Bournemouth vs. Millwall - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Bournemouth and Millwall, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Premier League-bound Bournemouth finish the Championship season with a home fixture against a Millwall side who still have an outside chance of qualifying for the playoffs.

The Cherries secured promotion back to the top flight in midweek, while the Lions are in eighth place – three points behind the top six.


Match preview

Kieffer Moore celebrates scoring the goal which earned Bournemouth promotion to the Premier League on May 3, 2022.© Reuters

Bournemouth prevented the race for automatic promotion being taken to the final day with a 1-0 win over third-placed Nottingham Forest on Tuesday night.

Kieffer Moore came off the bench to score the only goal in the 83rd minute as the Cherries booked their Premier League return after two years in the second tier.

Scott Parker's side, who are guaranteed to finish second, have not dropped lower than third since going top of the table on September 14.

Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last seven matches and have lost just three games at the Vitality Stadium all season – no Championship club has suffered fewer home defeats this term.

The Cherries also have the joint-best defence in the division, having conceded just 39 goals. Goalkeeper Mark Travers has most clean sheets (19).

Millwall manager Gary Rowett © Reuters

Millwall also have a sturdy defence and only the Championship's top three – Fulham, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest – have conceded fewer goals than them this season.

The Lions won 3-0 over already-relegated Peterborough United last weekend to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

Gary Rowett's side are three points behind sixth-placed Luton with a better goal difference, so to finish in the top six they need to beat Bournemouth and hope that the Hatters lose to Reading and seventh-placed Middlesbrough fail to win against Preston.

Millwall have suffered just two defeats in their last 16 matches, but have not won back-to-back games since the start of March and are winless in their last five away from home.

Furthermore, the Lions are without a win in their last five visits to the Vitality Stadium since victory there in December 2000. The two sides played out a 1-1 draw in this season's reverse fixture at The Den, when Benik Afobe cancelled out Dominic Solanke's opener.

Bournemouth Championship form:
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • W

Millwall Championship form:
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W



Team News

Bournemouth manager Scott Parker before the match on April 9, 2022© Reuters

With promotion secured, Scott Parker may give opportunities to some of the fringe players in his squad such as Tuesday's match-winner Moore.

Midfielder Jefferson Lerma was forced off injured just before the hour mark in midweek so is unlikely to feature.

Jamal Lowe was absent for the game against Forest and the subsequent celebrations due to illness, so he will hope to return and play a part.

After making his return from injury off the bench last weekend, Millwall talisman Jed Wallace is in contention to start what could be his final game for the club.

Ryan Leonard started against Peterborough for the first time since his four-month spell on the sidelines and should keep his place in the back three with Daniel Ballard still out.

Former Bournemouth man Benik Afobe has scored six goals in his last eight appearances and has been the driving force behind Millwall's playoff bid.

Bournemouth possible starting lineup:
Travers; Smith, Mepham, Kelly, Brady; Cook, Pearson; Christie, Billing, Dembele; Moore

Millwall possible starting lineup:
Bialkowski; Leonard, Cooper, Hutchinson; McNamara, Saville, Mitchell, M. Wallace; Afobe, J. Wallace; Bradshaw


SM words green background

We say: Bournemouth 1-1 Millwall

A few sore heads in the Bournemouth dressing room may play into Millwall's hands here as they desperately seek a win, but the Lions have been inconsistent of late and their away record is patchy so we think that they will only manage to take a point from the South coast.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bournemouth win with a probability of 59.4%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Millwall had a probability of 17.15%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bournemouth win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.85%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.03%), while for a Millwall win it was 0-1 (6.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Bournemouth in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Bournemouth vs Millwall

Bournemouth
50.8%
Draw
14.3%
Millwall
34.9%
63
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Kieffer Moore celebrates scoring the goal which earned Bournemouth promotion to the Premier League on May 3, 2022.
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