Bournemouth and Derby County meet at the Vitality Stadium on Saturday afternoon with both clubs locked in intense battles at opposite ends of the Championship table.
The Cherries are currently sat in second spot, level on points with third-placed Huddersfield Town, while the Rams are in 22nd and five points adrift of safety.
Match preview
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While Bournemouth are level on points with Huddersfield, they do have three games in hand over the Terriers, so remain in the driving seat in the race for automatic promotion.
However, the Cherries have faltered over the last week, losing 2-1 away at Preston North End before being held to a 1-1 draw by bottom club Peterborough United at the Vitality Stadium.
Scott Parker will have targeted this run of three successive home games against struggling teams – Reading visit the South coast on Tuesday – as a chance to gain maximum points so they cannot afford more disappointment this weekend.
Bournemouth have suffered just three league defeats at home all season and have the joint-best defence in the Championship, but have kept only one clean sheet in their last nine matches in all competitions.
The Cherries are winless in their last 10 meetings with Derby, a run dating back to 1985 when Parker was just four years old and opposite number Wayne Rooney had not even been born.
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The reverse fixture between the two sides earlier in the season was a thriller, as a Tom Lawrence-inspired Derby side came from 2-1 down to win 3-2.
However, the Rams have won just twice on the road all season and have suffered six consecutive away defeats in all competitions.
Rooney's team refuse to lie down in the battle for survival and a brace from Ravel Morrison earned them a 2-0 win over fellow strugglers Barnsley last weekend.
It ended a run of three straight defeats for Derby, who face another difficult away day at fourth-placed Blackburn Rovers after their trip to the Vitality Stadium.
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Team News
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Bournemouth will be without Philip Billing, who has been handed a two-game suspension after he picked up his 10th yellow card of the season against Peterborough on Tuesday. Adam Smith is also banned.
It could be one in, one out in midfield for the Cherries as Colombian Jefferson Lerma is available again following his own suspension.
Robbie Brady has returned to training this week following a calf problem, but Saturday's game could come too soon for him.
With no new injury concerns, Rooney could name the same Derby team that started the win over Barnsley last weekend.
Eighteen-year-old Malcolm Ebiowei came in for his first league start against the Tykes and impressed on the right wing, so should keep his place.
Winger Kamil Jozwiak is expected to complete a move to MLS side Charlotte FC in the coming days but he has not featured since the end of January anyway.
Bournemouth possible starting lineup:
Travers; Stacey, Phillips, Kelly, Zemura; Cantwell, Cook, Lerma; Christie, Solanke, Lowe
Derby County possible starting lineup:
Allsop; Byrne, Davies, Cashin, Ebosele; Bielik, Bird; Ebiowei, Morrison, Lawrence; Plange
We say: Bournemouth 2-1 Derby County
After two games without a win, we expect a response from Bournemouth in this match and are predicting the Cherries to triumph. If we have learned anything this season it is to not write off Derby, but it seems a big ask for the Rams to get something in this game.
Top tip
Olly Allen
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bournemouth win with a probability of 71.64%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 10.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bournemouth win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.65%) and 3-0 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.56%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (3.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Bournemouth in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Bournemouth.
