Sports Mole previews Thursday's Euro 2020 qualifying playoff between Bosnia-Herzegovina and Northern Ireland, including team news and predicted lineups.

Northern Ireland resume their quest to reach successive European Championship finals when they travel to Bosnia-Herzegovina for Thursday's qualifying playoff tie.

The winner of the semi-final in Sarajevo will face either Slovakia or Republic of Ireland for a place in next summer's rearranged Euro 2020 finals.

Around 2,000 home fans will be allowed to attend this fixture after getting clearance by the Bosnian government.

Match preview

This fixture has been given the all clear to go ahead, despite a Bosnia coach and player testing positive for coronavirus in the lead up to the game.

Assistant manager Rusmir Cviko and winger Haris Duljevic will play no part in the match, but officials are happy for the contest to still be played.

That will be a huge relief to Northern Ireland, having already seen this fixture called off in March and then again in June due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Unsurprisingly, then, neither sides' preparations have been all that good given the lack of international football played over the last 12 months.

Northern Ireland drew 1-1 at Romania last month in their UEFA Nations League opener - Gavin Whyte scoring a late equaliser - before falling to a 5-1 home loss against Norway.

Northern Ireland manager Ian Baraclough pictured on September 7, 2020 © Reuters

It is not exactly the start new boss Ian Baraclough would have wanted, but that most recent result will quickly be forgotten about if his side can overcome Bosnia on Thursday.

The hosts have failed to qualify for back-to-back major tournaments and lost 2-1 to Poland last time out, fresh on the back of holding Italy to a 1-1 draw.

Dusan Bajevic's side have won just one of their last five games - a 3-0 victory over minnows Lichtenstein - though Northern Ireland have themselves gone four without a win.

In fact, the visitors have lost four of their last seven matches, shipping 19 goals across those seven games, including 12 in their last three.

Northern Ireland have also lost each of their two previous matches against Bosnia-Herzegovina, with those games coming in the 2018-19 UEFA Nations League campaign.

Bosnia-Herzegovina form (all competitions): WLLWDL

Northern Ireland form (all competitions): LWDLDL

Team News

Steven Davis in action for Northern Ireland on September 11, 2018 © Reuters

As well as losing winger Duljevic following his positive coronavirus test, forward Elvir Koljic has also dropped out of the original squad to be replaced by Milan Duric.

Amer Gojak is among those included and has been directly involved in seven goals in his last four European Championship qualifying matches - four goals and three assists.

Northern Ireland are sweating on the fitness of key defender Jonny Evans, who took a knock in Leicester City's Premier League defeat to West Ham United last weekend.

Evans also missed his side's Nations League double-header last month because of personal reasons, but Baraclough is confident that the centre-back will be available on Thursday.

Captain Steven Davis will break Pat Jennings's caps record should he make his 120th appearance in Sarajevo.

Elsewhere, striker Josh Magennis will be hopeful of leading the line after scoring three goals as a substitute in Euro 2020 qualifying - more than any other player.

Bosnia-Herzegovina possible starting lineup:
Sehic; Cipetic, Hadzikadunic, Sanicanin, Kolasinac; Pjanic, Cimirot; Visca, Krunic, Gojak; Dzeko

Northern Ireland possible starting lineup:
Peacock-Farrell; Lewis, J. Evans, Cathcart, Dallas; C. Evans, Davis, McNair; Saville, Jones; Washington

SM words green background

We say: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-1 Northern Ireland

Both teams enter this game somewhat out of form in terms of their results over the past year, though Bosnia did hold Italy to a draw in a competitive match last month.

The hosts have never qualified for a major tournament via the playoffs, which is also the case for their opponents, but we can see them advancing with a narrow win on Thursday.

Top betting tip

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Written by
Daniel Lewis

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bosnia-Herzegovina win with a probability of 40.94%. A win for Northern Ireland had a probability of 34.57% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bosnia-Herzegovina win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.12%) and 2-0 (6.27%). The likeliest Northern Ireland win was 1-2 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.37%).