Borussia Monchengladbach host league leaders RB Leipzig in what arguably looks the fixture of the round in this weekend's Bundesliga action.
A win could take Gladbach into the top four depending on results elsewhere, with Leipzig knowing a win will keep them top of the pile as they look to hold off title rivals Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund.
Match preview
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Marco Rose's side produced an excellent comeback at Mainz 05 last weekend, winning 3-2 having trailed 2-1 at half time. Rose had rested Marcus Thuram, Alassane Plea, Jonas Hofmann and Florian Neuhaus ahead of the Champions League tie against Real Madrid in midweek, with all four players entering the field in the second half to great effect.
Captain Lars Stindl had provided Gladbach with the lead in the opening exchanges, firing home from close range after Breel Embolo's clever knockdown, before a brace from Mainz forward Jean-Philippe Mateta put Gladbach in a very tough position to recover from. However, with the big guns always likely to enter the fray at some stage and Gladbach generally capable of scoring in the blink of an eye, Mainz's lead never looked safe; so it proved when Thuram won his side yet another penalty when his goal-bound effort struck the arm of Moussa Niakhate. Hofmann duly converted before Matthias Ginter stole three points with a near post header from a corner.
Rose's decision to rest several of his best players looked more than justified when leading Real Madrid 2-0, with a brace from Thuram looking like taking Gladbach four points clear of their opponents in Group B with four games to play. However, two late goals from Karim Benzema and Casemiro sunk Gladbach hearts and reduced them to a second consecutive 2-2 draw in Europe's elite competition.
Indeed, while scoring goals is certainly not a problem at present for Rose's side, shutting them out at the other end is, with their last six matches all seeing both teams involved score. It is undoubtedly an extremely entertaining watch for the neutrals, but perhaps a balance which Rose may look to solve in the coming weeks.
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Domestically at least, Leipzig have had no such defensive concerns, with only Dortmund conceding fewer goals after the opening five matches.
Julian Nagelsmann's team did show certain signs of frailties on the counter-attack that we have come to expect from his sides during his fledgling managerial career, however, during the 2-1 win against Hertha Berlin last weekend. The visitors' rapid break from Leipzig's corner led to Dodi Lukebakio squaring for Jhon Cordoba to give Hertha an early lead.
Dayot Upamecano levelled three minutes later by striking high into the net for his first league goal in 30 months, before Leipzig were handed a gift early in the second half when substitute Deyovaisio Zeefuik earned two yellow cards within five minutes to leave his side a man down with 40 minutes remaining in the match. Pressure inevitably mounted, with Cordoba turning from hero to zero after tripping Willi Orban, with Marcel Sabitzer duly converting from the spot to earn his side three points and keep Leipzig top of the table.
However, those vulnerabilities to pace and precision on the break were ruthlessly exposed by Manchester United in a 5-0 defeat in the Champions League in midweek. Mason Greenwood was controversially adjudged to have been onside when racing through to open the scoring, with several attacking substitutions from Nagelsmann in the second half leaving his side looking imbalanced. Marcus Rashford came on as a substitute to score a hat-trick, with Anthony Martial scoring from the penalty spot after Ibrahima Konate had brought the Frenchman down.
Nagelsmann must ensure this rout was simply a blip and that it does not have an adverse affect on his side's unbeaten league campaign, all of which is much easier said than done of course, especially heading to a side with the attacking prowess of Gladbach.
Borussia Monchengladbach Bundesliga form: LDWDW
Borussia Monchengladbach form (all competitions): DWDDWD
RB Leipzig Bundesliga form: WDWWW
RB Leipzig form (all competitions): DWWWWL
Team News
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One man who could help provide greater protection to Gladbach's defensive unit is midfielder Denis Zakaria, who is still expected to be out of action for the match against Leipzig due to a lack of match fitness.
Andreas Poulsen's shoulder injury will also rule him out, while Jordan Beyer misses out due to coronavirus.
Rose will almost certainly not be resting any key players against a side as proficient as Leipzig, with the likes of Thuram, Plea, Neuhaus and Hofmann all likely to come back into the league starting XI.
Fabrice Hartmann and Lukas Klostermann are both long-term absentees for Leipzig, meanwhile, due to serious knee injuries, with Konrad Laimer's ankle fracture keeping him out for the foreseeable future, too.
Nagelsmann may be tempted to return to the striker-less system which worked to great effect in the early weeks of the season, with Yussuf Poulsen and substitute Alexander Sorloth looking ineffective at Old Trafford in midweek.
Borussia Monchengladbach possible starting lineup:
Sommer; Lainer, Ginter, Elvedi, Bensebaini; Kramer, Neuhaus; Hofmann, Stindl, Thuram; Plea
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulasci; Mukiele, Upamecano, Halstenberg, Tasende; Nkunku, Kampl, Sabitzer, Angelino; Olmo, Forsberg
We say: Borussia Monchengladbach 2-2 RB Leipzig
With Gladbach games featuring plenty of goals lately and Leipzig looking vulnerable in defence at Old Trafford, we can certainly envisage much of the same here between two excellent attacking units. Another high-scoring draw involving Gladbach would be no surprise with both managers probably content to avoid defeat.
Top betting tip
Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 47.14%. A win for Borussia Monchengladbach had a probability of 28.01% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.36%) and 0-2 (8.02%). The likeliest Borussia Monchengladbach win was 1-0 (7.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
