Preview: Bolivar vs Gremio - prediction, team news, lineups

The thin air of La Paz presents another formidable challenge for Brazilian football. Bolivar and Gremio face off on Thursday at Estadio Hernando Siles, 3,650 metres above sea level, in the first leg of the Copa Sudamericana round-of-16 playoffs.

On one side, Bolivar, who dropped down from the Libertadores; on the other, a wounded and depleted Gremio side needing the Sudamericana as a lifeline.

Match preview

Bolivar dropped into the Copa Sudamericana after finishing third in Libertadores Group C with five points, behind Fluminense and Independiente Rivadavia.

Away from home, they are fragile, with no wins in three group games, but in La Paz it is a different story entirely.

In the Bolivian Championship, Alejandro Restrepo's men sit third with 18 points (five wins, three draws, and two defeats), 24 goals scored and 10 conceded in 10 matches, behind Always Ready (23) and The Strongest (22).

The 1-1 draw with The Strongest in the derby on July 12 illustrates Bolivar's current moment: the team compete, but lack the consistency to overtake the top two.

Before their 4-0 thrashing of Guabira on 18 July, Bolivar suffered a painful 3-1 home defeat to Independiente Rivadavia in the Libertadores. That result sealed their elimination. Conceding three at Hernando Siles is a rarity, and it shook Bolivian confidence ahead of this knockout tie.

Gremio, meanwhile, are still searching for direction. In the Gaucho, they cruised to a 4-1 aggregate victory over their biggest rivals Internacional and lifted the trophy without drama.

In the Brasileiro, the story is different and concerning. Five wins, six draws, and eight defeats is how the Luis Castro's men closed out matchday 19, stumbling to a 2-1 loss away to Mirassol.

Carlos Vinicius, who scored Gremio's consolation goal against the Sao Paulo side in the 77th minute, is unavailable for the trip to Bolivia after picking up his second yellow card of the continental campaign.

In the Sudamericana, however, the team can breathe and have a strong chance of progressing, just as in the Copa do Brasil, where their round-of-16 opponents will be none other than Mirassol, the very side who beat them in the last Brasileiro fixture.

Without Carlos Vinicius, Braithwaite is expected to start up front. The Dane, back from an Achilles tendon injury, has four goals and one assist in 20 appearances since his return to action this year, and arrives in good form for a mission that demands extra physical endurance in the thin air of La Paz.

Since 2003, no Brazilian side has beaten Bolivar at Hernando Siles. For Gremio to repeat their own 2003 feat, they will need to avoid a heavy defeat, even without their manager and their top scorer.

Bolivar form (all competitions):

Gremio Copa Sudamericana form:

Gremio form (all competitions):

Team News

Carlos Lampe, 39, remains Bolivar's number one and brings a wealth of Libertadores and Sudamericana experience to help his side progress. Leonel Justiniano commands the midfield with the authority of a captain.

Alejandro Restrepo, Bolivar's third manager of the season after Flavio Robatto and Vladimir Soria, has brought in a heavyweight reinforcement: Colombian winger Dairon Asprilla, signed from Atletico Nacional. In defence, Santiago Echeverria and Xavier Arreaga hold the line alongside Jose Sagredo.

Cauteruccio, the 38-year-old Uruguayan, remains the main attacking reference in the squad: nine goals in 13 appearances this season. Dorny Romero and Pato Rodriguez complete the attacking options, each with two league goals.

Gremio head into the match with a lengthy list of absentees. Luis Castro will not travel with the squad to La Paz: the manager has already undergone two procedures to treat episodes of pneumothorax and has been advised by the medical department not to travel to high-altitude locations.

Gabriel Mec, a product of the youth academy, remains part of the squad: negotiations over his transfer to Shakhtar Donetsk have not yet been completed, and he is expected to be available against Bolivar.

Walter Kannemann continues as a pillar of the back line. Goalkeeper Weverton is the undisputed number one since returning from the World Cup.

Bolivar possible starting lineup:

Lampe; Sagredo, Arreaga, Echeverria, Zabala; Matheus, Justiniano, Melgar; Asprilla, Cauteruccio, Velasquez

Gremio possible starting lineup:

Weverton; Pavon, Martins, Kannemann, Gabriel; Villasanti, Nardoni, Mec; Tete, Enamorado, Braithwaite

We say: Bolivar 2-1 Gremio

A 2-1 scoreline appears to be the most accurate prediction for this fixture, balancing the altitude factor in Bolivar's favour with the absences afflicting Gremio for the first leg. The hosts do not possess enough attacking firepower for a rout, as they managed just six goals in six Libertadores group-stage matches.

The extreme altitude, combined with Bolivar's positive momentum after thrashing Guabira, the absence of top scorer Carlos Vinicius, and Gremio's off-field turbulence (with Luis Castro not even travelling for the match), all point towards a Bolivian advantage in the first leg.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.