Two teams in the bottom half of the Championship table will lock horns at Bloomfield Road on Monday afternoon, as Blackpool welcome Birmingham City.
Blackpool are currently 16th in the division, boasting 53 points from their 41 league games this term, while Birmingham sit 20th, 14 points ahead of the bottom three.
Match preview
© Reuters
Blackpool have won 14, drawn 11 and lost 16 of their 41 Championship matches this season to collect 53 points, which has left them in 16th spot in the table, two points behind 15th-placed Stoke City.
The Seasiders are actually only five points behind 13th-placed Preston North End, so they could jump up a few places in the latter stages of the campaign, but they could also drop down with some poor results.
Neil Critchley's side came through the League One playoffs last season to return to this level, so consolidating in the second tier was always going to be their number one priority with a view to building for next term.
Blackpool's recent form has been disappointing, losing three of their last five matches, picking up just two points in the process, but they have enough credit in the bank, so there are no relegation fears at this stage.
The Tangerines have actually won 10 of their 21 home league matches this season, and they will be welcoming a Birmingham outfit with the fourth-worst away record, with the Blues claiming just 19 points from their 21 Championship fixtures on their travels during the 2021-22 campaign.
© Reuters
Birmingham, meanwhile, will enter this match off the back of a 4-2 home loss to Coventry City on Friday, with the visitors coming from two goals behind to secure all three points in spectacular fashion.
The Blues have finished 19th, 19th, 17th, 20th and 18th in their last five Championship campaigns and appear likely to claim a similar spot this term, currently sitting 20th in the table.
Lee Bowyer's side are 14 points clear of 22nd-placed Derby County with just four games left, while they are 15 points clear of basement side Barnsley, who have five league matches left to play this term.
Birmingham will again be a Championship club next term, and like Blackpool, they can certainly move up the table over the next couple of weeks, sitting just four points behind 17th-placed Cardiff City.
The visitors have actually won their last two Championship matches against Blackpool, but they lost 1-0 to the Tangerines in the last meeting between the two sides at Bloomfield Road, which came back in 2014.
- W
- D
- L
- L
- D
- L
- D
- L
- D
- W
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Blackpool will be missing Grant Ward, Dujon Sterling, Daniel Grimshaw, Luke Garbutt and Jordan Gabriel for Monday's contest with Birmingham.
Gabriel's injury came during the clash with West Brom last time out, which should mean that Callum Connolly drops to right-back, allowing Matty Virtue to return in central midfield.
Chris Hamilton is also in line for a recall, with the 27-year-old potentially coming into an attacking position, but Gary Madine, who has eight league goals this season, will again lead the line.
As for Birmingham, on-loan Manchester United attacker Tahith Chong remains a doubt through injury, while Matija Sarkic, Neil Etheridge, George Friend, Adan George and Teden Mengi are definitely out.
Bowyer is expected to make a couple of changes to the side that started against Coventry on Friday, with Ivan Sunjic bidding to return to midfield, while there could be a spot at centre-forward for Troy Deeney.
Scott Hogan could be the player to drop out in the final third of the field, with Lyle Taylor and Juninho Bacuna again expected to be in the starting side for the Blues on Monday afternoon.
Blackpool possible starting lineup:
Maxwell; Connolly, Ekpiteta, Thorniley, Husband; Bowler, Virtue, Dougall, Hamilton; Lavery, Madine
Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Jeacock; Pedersen, Roberts, Gordon; Colin, Sunjic, Gardner, Bacuna, Hernandez; Taylor, Deeney
We say: Blackpool 1-0 Birmingham City
Blackpool have won 10 of their 21 home Championship matches this season, while Birmingham have been victorious in just four of their 21 games on their travels. We are not expecting a particularly entertaining contest on Monday but believe that the home side will have enough to secure all three points.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Blackpool win with a probability of 45.33%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 28.08% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Blackpool win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.96%) and 2-0 (8.46%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 0-1 (8.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Blackpool would win this match.
