Benfica will be looking to secure an advantage when they welcome FC Midtjylland to Portugal for the first leg of their third qualifying round Champions League contest on Tuesday night.
The Eagles finished third in Portugal's top flight last term, which saw them book their spot in the third qualifying round, while Midtjylland overcame Larnaca in the last round, ultimately winning on penalties after the two sides had played out back-to-back 1-1 draws.
Match preview
© Reuters
Benfica impressed in the Champions League last season, beating Spartak Moscow and PSV Eindhoven in the preliminary rounds before finishing second in a group that included both Barcelona and Bayern Munich.
The Portuguese giants then beat Ajax 3-2 on aggregate in the round of 16, but they were eliminated by Liverpool in the last eight, losing 6-4 on aggregate to the Reds, who went down 1-0 to Real Madrid in the final.
Benfica will again have to come through a third qualifying round tie and a playoff encounter if they are to be present in the group stage of the competition, having finished third in Portugal's top flight last term, 11 points behind second-place Sporting Lisbon and 17 off champions Porto.
Roger Schmidt's side have been busy during this summer's transfer window, bringing in David Neres, Enzo Fernandez, Joao Victor, Alexander Bah, Petar Musa and Mihailo Ristic.
There have also been some notable outgoings, namely Darwin Nunez and Everton, but they have been impressive in pre-season, winning all five of their matches, while they will begin their 2022-23 league season at home to Arouca on August 5.
© Reuters
Midtjylland, meanwhile, finished second in the Danish Superliga last season, which saw them join the 2022-23 Champions League in the second qualifying round.
The Wolves found Larnaca to be tricky opposition, drawing 2-2 on aggregate with the Cypriot outfit, but they managed to triumph 4-3 on penalties to ensure that they would be present at this stage of the competition.
Bo Henriksen's side are also already three league games into their 2022-23 season, picking up four points from three matches, which has left them in third position in the table.
The Danish giants were in impressive form on Friday, recording a 5-1 win over OB, and they competed in the group stage of the Champions League in 2020-21, finishing fourth in Group D, which included Liverpool, Ajax and Atalanta BC.
Midtjylland operated in both the Europa League and Europa Conference League last season after failing to make the group stage of the Champions League, finishing third in their Europa League section before losing on penalties to PAOK in the knockout round playoffs of the Europa Conference League.
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- L
- D
- D
- L
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Benfica are likely to have some new faces in their starting lineup for this match, with Neres and Fernandez set to start following their arrivals from Shakhtar Donetsk and River Plate respectively.
There could also be a spot in the final third of the field for Musa, while 20-year-old Henrique Araujo could also play in an attacking area for the Portuguese giants.
There will be experience at the back in the shape of Nicolas Otamendi and Jan Vertonghen, while Alex Grimaldo is expected to start despite the speculation surrounding his future.
As for Midtjylland, the starting side is expected to be similar to the one that took to the field for the first whistle against Larnaca last week.
Head coach Henriksen made changes for the league game against OB on Friday, with Charles, Paulinho and Edward Chilufya among those to drop out, but the trio should return here.
Pione Sisto is also pushing for a spot in the side, but Gustav Isaksen and Anders Dreyer, who both scored on Friday, are likely to retain their starting roles for Tuesday's European contest.
Benfica possible starting lineup:
Vlachodimos; Gilberto, Otamendi, Vertonghen, Grimaldo; Fernandez, Weigl; Neres, Ramos, H Araujo; Musa
FC Midtjylland possible starting lineup:
Olafsson; Dalsgaard, Sviatchenko, Juninho; Andersson, Onyedika, Charles, Paulinho; Chilufya, Dreyer, Isaksen
We say: Benfica 2-1 FC Midtjylland
Midtjylland are certainly capable of making this an uncomfortable match for Benfica, but we are struggling to back the visitors with any real confidence. Benfica should do enough to claim an advantage ahead of the second leg, but we are expecting the tie to still be open heading into the return fixture.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 41.67%. A win for FC Midtjylland had a probability of 34.55% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.37%) and 2-0 (6.01%). The likeliest FC Midtjylland win was 1-2 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
