Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union SG win with a probability of 47.33%. A win for Genk had a probability of 27.46% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union SG win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest Genk win was 0-1 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Union SG in this match.