Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Brugge win with a probability of 44.69%. A win for Genk had a probability of 31.48% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Club Brugge win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8%) and 0-2 (6.69%). The likeliest Genk win was 2-1 (7.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.