Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union SG win with a probability of 51.55%. A win for Genk had a probability of 25.46% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union SG win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.78%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Genk win was 1-2 (6.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.64%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union SG would win this match.