Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 41.54%. A win for Beerschot Wilrijk had a probability of 34.39% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.7%) and 0-2 (6.15%). The likeliest Beerschot Wilrijk win was 2-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Genk would win this match.