Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtyor Soligorsk win with a probability of 47.21%. A win for Smorgon had a probability of 28.12% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtyor Soligorsk win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest Smorgon win was 0-1 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.