Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MKK-Dnepr win with a probability of 81.41%. A draw had a probability of 12.24% and a win for Naftan had a probability of 6.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a MKK-Dnepr win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.75%) and 1-0 (10.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.8%) , while for a Naftan win it was 0-1 (2.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.