Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a BATE Borisov win with a probability of 44.5%. A draw had a probability of 28.71% and a win for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk had a probability of 26.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a BATE Borisov win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.51%) and 2-1 (8.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.38%) , while for a Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win it was 0-1 (9.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.