Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a BATE Borisov win with a probability of 66.59%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk had a probability of 12.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a BATE Borisov win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.8%) and 2-1 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.76%), while for an Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win it was 0-1 (5.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.