Union Berlin entertain Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga in Saturday's evening kickoff, with the hosts looking to bounce back from last weekend's disappointing derby defeat to Hertha Berlin.
Bayern, meanwhile, have drawn two of their last three league matches, so they will be looking to go on another winning run before the winter break begins.
Match preview
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After remaining unbeaten for eight matches, Union Berlin headed across the capital to take on Hertha with plenty of confidence of gaining a result.
That optimism looked to have been well-founded after Taiwo Awoniyi, on loan from Liverpool, latched onto Marcus Ingvartsen's through ball after a lovely first touch by the Danish forward had opened up the space. However, the visitors' early aggression crossed a line when Robert Andrich - who had already made a few fouls in the early exchanges - connected with Lucas Tousart's head with a dangerously high foot, with the midfielder deservedly sent off as a result.
Urs Fischer's side held onto their lead heading into the break, but it was always going to be a tough ask to do so for the entire match with a man disadvantage. Full-back Peter Pekarik levelled proceedings early in the second half after pouncing onto the rebound from Matheus Cunha's saved effort, before substitute Krzysztof Piatek proved to be the difference marker with a brace. The former Milan striker's deflected effort was backed up by a superbly instinctive finish from the edge of the area to seal a crucial three points for Hertha.
Given this is only Union Berlin's second ever season in Germany's top flight, the fact they had remained unbeaten since the opening matchday was a remarkable achievement, and one which never looked like ending prior to Andrich's red card last weekend. Fischer will be imploring his side to keep playing with confidence despite the disappointing defeat.
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While Bayern remain top of the Bundesliga by a point, the Bavarians do not look as unstoppable as they did throughout most of the second half of last season under Hansi Flick.
Having dropped only five points in 24 league matches since becoming Bayern's permanent manager last December, the reigning champions have dropped four points in their last three games after last weekend's 3-3 draw at home to RB Leipzig.
It was certainly a pulsating encounter between the two title rivals, with Marcel Sabitzer getting the game off to a flier after smashing the crossbar with a swerving effort from 30 yards, before Kingsley Coman tested Peter Gulasci at the Hungary goalkeeper's near post. A lightning Leipzig counter-attack saw Christopher Nkunku run free through the middle of the pitch, jinking to his left to outmanoeuvre the advancing Manuel Neuer before firing into an empty net.
Gulasci was forced into another fine save by Benjamin Pavard's trademark strike from distance, before Leipzig's goalkeeper was finally beaten by substitute Jamal Musiala's effort from outside of the area. Thomas Muller turned the game on its head after superb interplay by Robert Lewandowski and Coman found the forward's clever run into the penalty area, with Justin Kluivert bagging a finish his father would have been proud of at the peak of his powers to level proceedings heading into the half-time interval.
The in-form Angelino's delightful cross found Emil Forsberg inexplicably free inside the six yard box to fire the visitors ahead once more, before Coman once again assisted Muller to earn a share of the spoils. Bayern must ensure they do not slip up once again this weekend to avoid being overthrown at the summit of the table by their most recent opponents or second-placed Bayer Leverkusen.
Union Berlin Bundesliga form: DWWWDL
Bayern Munich Bundesliga form: WWWDWD
Bayern Munich form (all competitions): DWWDDW
Team News
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Andrich will miss the visit of Bayern due to beginning his suspension after his red card in last weekend's Berlin derby, with Christopher Trimmel set to join him on the suspension list if he picks up one more yellow card.
An even bigger blow is the loss of Max Kruse for up to eight weeks, after the club's top goalscorer tore a muscle bundle. Anthony Ujah (knee), Christian Gentner (muscle) and Joel Pohjanpalo (ankle) are also all out through injury.
Bayern will continue to be without the services of Joshua Kimmich after the midfielder sustained meniscus damage last month. Javi Martinez is also unavailable for the trip to Berlin due to a hamstring injury.
However, Flick was boosted by the return of full-back Alphonso Davies against Lokomotiv Moscow, with Lewandowski set to return to the side after being rested in Europe once again.
Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Luthe; Freidrich, Knoche, Ryerson; Trimmel, Griesbeck, Promel, Lenz; Ingvartsen, Awoniyi, Becker
Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Pavard, Boateng, Sule, Alaba; Goretzka, Roca; Gnabry, Muller, Coman; Lewandowski
We say: Union Berlin 0-2 Bayern Munich
With Kruse and Andrich out for the hosts, we don't envisage them being able to stop Bayern despite the visitors' slight dip in performance levels in recent weeks.
With Coman, Muller and Lewandowski in superb form, the Bavarians should have too much firepower for Fischer's outfit.
Top betting tip
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 71.59%. A draw had a probability of 15.8% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 12.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.61%) and 1-3 (8.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.81%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 2-1 (3.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.
