The 2026 Ballon d'Or battle is intensifying, and in just a few weeks' time, the next winner of football's most prestigious individual award will waltz up to the London stage to collect their hard-earned trophy.
A record-extending ninth triumph for Lionel Messi - while possible - is not expected to come to fruition, but Ousmane Dembele is a strong contender to retain the accolade he collected in 2025.
However, the juicy head-to-head between Bayern Munich's Harry Kane and Barcelona's Lamine Yamal is currently dominating the Ballon d'Or debate, especially after the former's latest milestone achievement after the latter's not-so-subtle dig.
After Yamal insisted that the Ballon d'Or should be awarded to the best player rather than the best goalscorer, Kane smashed yet another record, netting 100 Bundesliga goals in an unprecedented 98 matches.
Hailed the "king" by the German media, Kane is the bookies' favourite to become the first English winner of the Ballon d'Or for 25 years, but does Yamal's 'best player over best goalscorer' claim align with history?
Here, Sports Mole takes a look at how many European Golden Shoe winners since 2000 also won the Ballon d'Or for that year/season.
Five European top scorer and Ballon d'Or winners since 2000
| Season | European Golden Shoe winner | Goals | Ballon d'Or winner | Same? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999-00 | Kevin Phillips (Sunderland) | 30 | Luis Figo | ❌ |
| 2000-01 | Henrik Larsson (Celtic) | 35 | Michael Owen | ❌ |
| 2001-02 | Mario Jardel (Sporting CP) | 42 | Ronaldo | ❌ |
| 2002-03 | Roy Makaay (Deportivo) | 29 | Pavel Nedved | ❌ |
| 2003-04 | Thierry Henry (Arsenal) | 30 | Andriy Shevchenko | ❌ |
| 2004-05 | Thierry Henry (Arsenal)& Diego Forlan | 25 | Ronaldinho | ❌ |
| 2005-06 | Luca Toni (Fiorentina) | 31 | Fabio Cannavaro | ❌ |
| 2006-07 | Francesco Totti (Roma) | 26 | Kaka | ❌ |
| 2007-08 | Cristiano Ronaldo (Man Utd) | 31 | Cristiano Ronaldo | ✅ |
| 2008-09 | Diego Forlan (Atletico Madrid) | 32 | Lionel Messi | ❌ |
| 2009-10 | Lionel Messi (Barcelona) | 34 | Lionel Messi | ✅ |
| 2010-11 | Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) | 40 | Lionel Messi | ❌ |
| 2011-12 | Lionel Messi (Barcelona) | 50 | Lionel Messi | ✅ |
| 2012-13 | Lionel Messi (Barcelona) | 46 | Cristiano Ronaldo | ❌ |
| 2013-14 | Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid)& Luis Suarez | 31 | Cristiano Ronaldo | ✅ |
| 2014-15 | Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid) | 48 | Lionel Messi | ❌ |
| 2015-16 | Luis Suarez (Barcelona) | 40 | Cristiano Ronaldo | ❌ |
| 2016-17 | Lionel Messi (Barcelona) | 37 | Cristiano Ronaldo | ❌ |
| 2017-18 | Lionel Messi (Barcelona) | 34 | Luka Modric | ❌ |
| 2018-19 | Lionel Messi (Barcelona) | 36 | Lionel Messi | ✅ |
| 2019-20 | Ciro Immobile (Lazio) | 36 | No award (COVID-19) | — |
| 2020-21 | Robert Lewandowski (Bayern) | 41 | Lionel Messi | ❌ |
| 2021-22 | Robert Lewandowski (Bayern) | 35 | Karim Benzema | ❌ |
| 2022-23 | Erling Haaland (Man City) | 36 | Lionel Messi | ❌ |
| 2023-24 | Harry Kane (Bayern) | 36 | Rodri | ❌ |
| 2024-25 | Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid) | 31 | Ousmane Dembele | ❌ |
| 2025-26 | Harry Kane (Bayern) | 36 | Award not yet presented | TBD |
While prolific attackers will naturally position themselves at the top of the Ballon d'Or shortlist - unless your name is Rodri, Luka Modric or Fabio Cannavaro - scoring the most goals does not guarantee a Ballon d'Or crowning, as the historical data shows.
Indeed, only five recipients of the European Golden Shoe have also claimed the world's best player prize since 2000, and none since Messi in the 2018-19 season.
Kylian Mbappe topped the continental scoring charts in 2024-25 with 31 efforts, but Dembele's Champions League coronation trumped his compatriot's attacking achievements, while Erling Haaland and Robert Lewandowski have also been snubbed in recent years.
The latter has been crowned the honorary winner of the cancelled 2020 Ballon d'Or by fans, but Lewandowski was not even the most prolific striker in Europe that year - that award went to Ciro Immobile.
In fact, Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo are the only European Golden Shoe and Ballon d'Or double winners in history, the former also doing so in 2009-10 and 2011-12, while Ronaldo managed the feat in 2007-08 and 2013-14.
How many Ballon d'Or winners haven't won the Champions League, Euros, Copa America or World Cup?
| Year | Winner | UCL | Euros | Copa America | World Cup | Major trophy? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Luis Figo | No | No | — | — | No |
| 2001 | Michael Owen | No | — | No | — | No |
| 2002 | Ronaldo | No | — | — | WonBrazil | Yes |
| 2003 | Pavel Nedved | No | — | — | — | No |
| 2004 | Andriy Shevchenko | No | No | No | — | No |
| 2005 | Ronaldinho | No | — | — | — | No |
| 2006 | Fabio Cannavaro | No | — | — | WonItaly | Yes |
| 2007 | Kaka | WonMilan | — | —* | — | Yes |
| 2008 | Cristiano Ronaldo | WonMan Utd | No | — | — | Yes |
| 2009 | Lionel Messi | WonBarcelona | — | — | — | Yes |
| 2010 | Lionel Messi | No | — | — | No | No |
| 2011 | Lionel Messi | WonBarcelona | — | No | — | Yes |
| 2012 | Lionel Messi | No | — | — | — | No |
| 2013 | Cristiano Ronaldo | No | — | — | — | No |
| 2014 | Cristiano Ronaldo | WonReal Madrid | — | — | No | Yes |
| 2015 | Lionel Messi | WonBarcelona | — | No | — | Yes |
| 2016 | Cristiano Ronaldo | WonReal Madrid | WonPortugal | — | — | Yes (x2) |
| 2017 | Cristiano Ronaldo | WonReal Madrid | — | — | — | Yes |
| 2018 | Luka Modric | WonReal Madrid | — | — | No (runner-up) | Yes |
| 2019 | Lionel Messi | No | — | No | — | No |
| 2020 | No award | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | Lionel Messi | No | No | WonArgentina | — | Yes |
| 2022 | Karim Benzema | WonReal Madrid | — | — | —** | Yes |
| 2023 | Lionel Messi | No | — | — | WonArgentina† | Yes |
| 2024 | Rodri | No | WonSpain | — | — | Yes |
| 2025 | Ousmane Dembele | WonPSG | — | — | — | Yes |
In stark contrast, players who have achieved tremendous team success - either the Champions League, Euros, Copa America or World Cup - are far more likely to also take home the Ballon d'Or.
Since 2000, 16 of the 25 Ballon d'Or winners - 64% - also won one of the four major accolades at team level, including each of the recipients since 2021.
Of the nine incidences of a player winning a Ballon d'Or without a UCL, Euros, Copa America or World Cup, Messi and Ronaldo are responsible for four of them, alongside Ronaldinho, Pavel Nedved, Andriy Shevchenko, Luis Figo and Michael Owen.
Interestingly, only one of the six Ballons d'Or between 2000 and 2005 went to a player who had won one of the four major honours - Brazil's 2002 World Cup legend Ronaldo - so team success evidently carries far more weight than it used to.