Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahamas win with a probability of 41.05%. A win for Barbados had a probability of 38.5% and a draw had a probability of 20.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahamas win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-3 (5.07%) and 1-3 (5.04%). The likeliest Barbados win was 2-1 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (7.32%). The actual scoreline of 6-2 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.