Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barbados win with a probability of 47.72%. A win for Bahamas had a probability of 29.2% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barbados win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.69%) and 0-2 (6.88%). The likeliest Bahamas win was 2-1 (7.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barbados would win this match.