Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nicaragua win with a probability of 76.37%. A draw had a probability of 15.4% and a win for Barbados had a probability of 8.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nicaragua win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.03%) and 0-3 (10.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.32%), while for a Barbados win it was 1-0 (3.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nicaragua would win this match.