Athletico Paranaense will try to extend their unbeaten run at home to 13 games in all competitions when they host Sao Paulo in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A on Saturday at Arena da Baixada.
El Paranaense dropped to sixth in the table following a 2-0 defeat last week to Atletico Mineiro while Sao Paulo are winless in their previous three league fixtures after drawing Palmeiras 0-0 last Saturday.
Match preview
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After narrowly advancing into the quarter-finals of the Copa do Brasil this week, beating Atletico Goianiense 4-3 on aggregate, Paranaense will hope to ride that momentum into this weekend on their home field, where they have yet to lose in this campaign.
After 13 league games, they sit in sixth place with 23 points, and are currently the third highest-scoring team in Serie A with 21 goals.
They will be happy to be returning home, having lost two of their last three league matches on the road, failing to score in both defeats.
Since the appointment of Antonio Oliveira as the full-time manager in March, this team have generated plenty of positive results, winning 19 of his 30 games in charge in all competitions.
Seeing as they are still in the Copa Sudamericana and Copa do Brasil, Oliveira will have the job of playing the right players in the right situations moving forward, as Athletico will play a total of eight matches in all competitions in August.
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One of the most famous Brazilian football clubs are in danger of being relegated, with Sao Paulo currently sitting in 17th in the league standings.
After leading this team to the Campeonato Paulista earlier this year, Hernan Crespo is trying to keep this team in the top flight as they are currently a point behind Cuiaba for 16th place and a guaranteed spot in Serie A next year.
A side who are through to the quarter-finals at the Copa Libertadores and the Copa do Brasil seem to have lost their focus in the Brasileiro, winning only two fixtures this year and failing to score in four league games in 2021.
Perhaps their attention is on other competitions, but if they want to have a shot at competing in all of those top tournaments in South America beyond this season, they will have to start earning some results in Serie A.
The good news for Crespo and his team is that one win can get them out of relegation danger, but there are plenty of games still to be played, and they are a long way from earning a spot in any major tournament next season, so there is no time to waste.
Over the last week, however, we have seen some positive signs from this side, winning on the road this week, 2-1 over Vasco da Gama at the Copa do Brasil, and holding the league leaders and their arch-rivals Palmeiras scoreless last weekend.
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Team News
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Marcinho started in defence in the Copa do Brasil instead of Khellven, Christian started in midfield rather than Leo Cittadini, while Vitinho, David Terans and Nikao also featured in their midweek encounter, replacing Carlos Eduardo, Jadson and Fernando Canesin, who all started in their last league game.
Matheus Babi will be out for a while after undergoing cruciate ligament surgery in March, and Marcinho has four assists on the year, which puts him even for the team lead with Terans and just three back of the league leader, Gustavo Scarpa of Palmeiras.
Crespo made wholesale changes to the starting 11 from their last league match to their Copa do Brasil tie this week, with Tiago Volpi, Emiliano Rigoni, Miranda and Leo the only players who maintained their place in the team.
Rigoni will not be available for this one following his red card late in their last league match, while Walce has a cruciate ligament rupture and Luciano has a muscle injury.
Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Bento; Marcinho, Heleno, Henrique, Azevedo, Erick, Cittadini; Christian, Jadson, Terans; Kayzer
Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Volpi; Vinicius, Miranda, Leo, Reinaldo; Gomes, Liziero, William, Rojas; Pablo, Marquinhos
We say: Athletico Paranaense 2-0 Sao Paulo
Athletico are at their best when playing at home, they know how to find the back of the net, and with their next two games in the league against sides near the bottom of the table, they recognize that this is a prime opportunity for them to potentially move into the top five in the Brasileiro standings.
Sao Paulo have played better lately, but they are still struggling to find a consistent goalscorer, which could explain why they are in danger of being relegated.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 39.97%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 31.94% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.17%) and 2-0 (7.58%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 0-1 (10.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
