A first Brazilian Serie A title since 1971 is beginning to turn from a dream to a reality for Atletico Mineiro and they can extend their healthy lead at the top of the table when they welcome Ceara to the Estadio Mineirao on Saturday evening.
Ceara are chasing a spot in the Copa Sudamericana for the second consecutive season, after achieving a 12th-placed finish last season, and can strengthen their hopes when they travel South to Belo Horizonte this weekend.
Match preview
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Despite losing their opening match of the campaign, Mineiro remain the standout team in this season's Serie A and have led the way at the top of the table since mid-August.
Triumphing 2-1 over Palmeiras during a blockbuster clash in the summer, victory over the reigning Copa Libertadores champions took Mineiro to the summit of the table and the Galo have not looked back since.
Palmeiras were to inflict their revenge in dramatic style recently, when they scrapped past Mineiro in the Libertadores semi-final on away goals, denying them their first place in the final of South America's biggest club competition since they won it in 2013.
In the midst of a 16-match unbeaten run, stretching all the way back to late June, Mineiro have a comfortable 11-point lead over second-place Flamengo, however, their advantage could be halved should the club from Rio de Janeiro win their two games in hand.
Mineiro will face the eight-time Brazilian champions in what is shaping up to be one of the most decisive games of the season at the end of October, yet the league leaders will be wary of not throwing away their commanding position by the time that fixture rolls around.
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One of the three sides to have beaten Mineiro this season are their opponents on Saturday, with Gabriel Lacerda's 90th-minute header snatching a famous victory for Ceara.
A second-tier side for a large chunk of the last decade, the win was only Ceara's second over Mineiro since June 2011, and the Big Grandpa will be eyeing up a historic double this weekend.
They enter the fixture in what has proved to be a tumultuous run of form for the side from Western Brazil, after a solid start to the season had seen them lose just two of their first 15 matches.
Whilst an impressive run, the second-highest total of draws in the division has prevented Ceara from operating higher up the table and they are one of a number of sides engrossed in a tight battle for continental football.
Only six points separate Juventude in 15th to Athletico Paranaense in seventh, with six Sudamericana spots and a further six Libertadores spots to be decided by the end of the season.
Should they qualify once again for South America, they will be aiming to build on what turned out to be a disappointing Sudamericana campaign, with Ceara knocked out in the group stage after finishing two points behind Argentine side Arsenal.
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Team News
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Having played most of Ceara's fixtures before picking up a season-ending knee injury, Buiu has not featured since mid-August and the right-back is set to sit the rest of the campaign out.
Vitor Jacare was another player who the Ceara backroom staff had initially feared would miss the rest of the year when he suffered a cruciate ligament injury at the start of 2021, however, the promising 21-year-old forward could make a return by the end of November.
Whilst relegation is an unlikely prospect for Ceara this season, their end-of-season push could be boosted by the return of Wendson, who has been missing since early August.
A first league title in over 50 years is not a formality for Mineiro, despite their lofty lead at the top of the table, and the return of Diego Costa to the fold will no doubt prove invaluable to the Galo.
The former Chelsea and Atletico Madrid forward has only featured a handful of times since arriving in August, yet his experience of helping sides over the line during tight championship races will be crucial and the 33-year-old's imminent return from injury is a major boost for Mineiro.
Costa is one of a number of Mineiro players currently in the treatment room, with Mariano and Eduardo Vargas both sidelined through injury, whilst Alan Franco, Junior Alonso and Guilherme Arana are away on international duty.
In what is proving to be a tough spell for Mineiro boss Cuca, the hosts will be able to welcome back Matias Zaracho, who was suspended for their 2-2 draw against Chapecoense in midweek.
Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Everson; Guga, Rabello, Silva, Dodo; Allan, Jair; Borrero, Fernandez, Keno; Hulk
Ceara possible starting lineup:
Ricardo; Pacheco, Otavio, Messiah, Inocencio; Sobral, Marlon; Kelvyn, Vinicius, Santos Sousa; Cleber
We say: Atletico Mineiro 2-1 Ceara
Mineiro will be confident of returning to winning ways when they welcome Ceara on Saturday evening and the league leaders' impressive head-to-head record suggests they will be triumphant yet again.
However, as the prospect of a championship win edges ever closer for Cuca and his men, nerves could come into play, making this one a trickier test then it looks on paper.
Top tip
Amos Murphy
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 58.43%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Ceara had a probability of 16.73%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.53%) and 2-1 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.32%), while for a Ceara win it was 0-1 (7.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
