Atletico Mineiro and Palmeiras will have it all to play for in the second leg of their semi-final at the Copa Libertadores on Tuesday at Mineirao in Belo Horizonte.
These teams played to a 0-0 draw in the opening fixture at Allianz Parque last week, and they each had tough outings in the league this past weekend as Galo drew 0-0 with Sao Paulo, while Palestra were beaten 2-1 by Corinthians.
Match preview
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In a matchup of two contrasting styles of play, Atletico looked the livelier side in the opening match of this round, but chances were few and far between against Verdao, who were eager to defend at all costs and wait for an opportunity to pounce.
Cuca watched his team have the bulk of the possession, although they rarely looked threatening, unable to fire a single shot on target in the entire game.
The best opportunity came their way late in the first half when Atletico earned a penalty, where Hulk sent Weverton the wrong way, only to see his effort strike the goalpost as neither side were able to break through.
Despite this missed opportunity, the current league leaders in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A will have complete confidence in their abilities to win this all-important match, especially seeing as they are unbeaten in their last 13 games played at home in all competitions.
Galo will have a little extra support for this pivotal confrontation after being given permission to have 30% of stadium capacity, something that Palmeiras were not allowed as the first leg was played behind closed doors.
While Mineiro were shut down by a well organised Palestra team last week, this side know a thing or two about defending themselves, holding the second-highest scoring team in Brazil off the scoresheet in their league fixture last month, while conceding only one shot on target in each of their two encounters with Verdao this season, but allowing no goals.
For the first time all season, Atletico have failed to score in consecutive matches in all competitions, and while finding the back of the net will be important on Tuesday, they will also need to be sharp at the back, knowing that any draw that is not a goalless one would result in their elimination on away goals.
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Abel Ferreira seemed content to have his squad sit back and stymie their opponents last Tuesday, playing in their third semi-final at this tournament over the past four years.
Going into the return leg all square, we should expect to see them play with a greater desire to attack, knowing that a win or a draw with goals would see them through to the final and an opportunity to defend their title.
In their previous appearance at this event, their precision in front of goal on the road got them to the final, as they beat River Plate 3-0 in Argentina in the first-leg, losing the return match at home 2-0.
They have failed to win their last two return matches in the semi-finals of this championship, drawing 2-2 with Boca Juniors in 2018 and falling 2-0 to River Plate in the 2020 edition.
Since the end of July, Palmeiras have only won one of their five matches played away from home in all competitions while failing to find the back of the net on two occasions.
Their diligent marking and defensive structure against Atletico last week, while not terribly exciting, was still extremely effective, but unless they want to leave things up to chance and go to penalties in this upcoming game, their counters need to be quicker and more efficient.
Their experience of playing at this stage of the competition last year should provide them with a bit of a psychological boost against a side that they have not beaten away from home since 2019.
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Team News
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In the previous round, Galo got an enormous contribution from attacking midfielder Matias Zaracho who notched a brace in the second leg against River Plate to ensure passage into the final four.
Over the weekend, Cuca made several changes to the starting 11 against Sao Paulo from the team who started the game against Palestra with Rever replacing Guilherme Arana, Guga was inserted in favour of Mariano, Nathan was preferred over Jair and Eduardo Vargas replaced Diego Costa in the attack.
Mineiro will be looking to their speedy winger Nacho Fernandez to provide a spark on Wednesday and for a bit of insight on how to get the better of Palestra, as he helped River Plate defeat them in the 2018 semi-finals on their way to winning the championship.
Palmeiras midfielder Gabriel Menino picked up his first goal of the season on Saturday in their defeat to Corinthians, while defender Gustavo Gomez was the most relieved man on the pitch last Tuesday when Hulk missed his spot-kick after the Palmeiras defender brought down Diego Costa in the box.
The only targeted effort in the opening fixture between these sides came courtesy of Rony, but Everson easily handled his long-range effort.
Ferreira made wholesale changes this weekend from the team who started last Tuesday as Renan replaced Marcos Rocha, Gabriel Menino took the place of Joaquin Piquerez, Patrick was inserted in midfield over Felipe Melo, Danilo started instead of Ze Rafael, Wesley was preferred over Rony and Gustavo Scarpa began the game in place of Raphael Veiga.
Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Everson; Arana, Alonso, Silva, Mariano; Fernandez, Allan, Tche Tche, Zaracho; Costa, Hulk
Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Weverton; Rocha, Gomez, Luan, Renan; Melo, Ze Rafael; Rony, Veiga; Wesley, Adriano
We say: Atletico Mineiro 1-0 Palmeiras
For Palmeiras, this match is a case of been there done that, however, their form heading into this fixture is not great, and they seem to be lacking some of the desire that they had a season ago.
The pressure is on for Atletico, who know that conceding in this game could spell disaster, but they have come through in big matches in every competition so far this year, while also failing to concede a goal at home in their last eight fixtures in all competitions.
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 48.18%. A win for Palmeiras had a probability of 27.55% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.47%) and 2-0 (7.93%). The likeliest Palmeiras win was 0-1 (6.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.
