Atletico Mineiro can move a step closer to claiming only their second Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A title when they host Fluminense on Sunday from Minerao.
The club from Belo Horizonte are unbeaten in six successive fixtures and currently hold an eight-point cushion at the top of the table, while Fluminense benefitted from an early penalty kick on Wednesday to blank Internacional 1-0.
Match preview
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It has been an agonizing few decades for the supporters of Galo, who saw this team come up just short of ending a lengthy Serie A title drought last year, as they finished third, only three points behind the champions Flamengo.
This year has been about unfinished business for them, and with Cuca at the commands, they have been laser focused and determined to not make the same mistakes from last year, and it seems as though they are poised to end 50 years of frustration with their previous and only domestic title to date coming back in 1971.
While they can have an off game once in a while, it does not take much for them to get themselves out of some sticky situations, as they showed on Tuesday when they fought back from a goal down twice to draw 2-2 with Palmeiras.
Two more wins and the title will be theirs, and they will be feeling pretty good about their chances to pick up a victory on Sunday, seeing as they have not lost to Flu at home since 2013, and they have won nine straight games in all competitions at Minerao, collecting three successive clean sheets.
Not only would two more victories bring them a belated domestic championship, but it would also tie the league record for most wins in a domestic campaign before 2003, when Palmeiras won 25 games in 1973, although they cannot catch the current record holders post-2003, Cruzeiro, who won 31 games in that same year.
This group of knowledgeable players can make some thoughtful tactical adjustments and adapt to different playing methods, including employing a variety of formations such as a 4-2-2-2 versus Palestra only a few days after using a 4-2-3-1 in their 2-0 win against Juventude.
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It has been a roller coaster of a season for Fluminense, filled with ups and downs, but they are starting to peak at the right time.
Although it is too late for them to challenge for the title, they are only a point behind Bragantino and Fortaleza for a spot in the Copa Libertadores qualifiers next year and only two back of Corinthians for a place in the group stage of that competition.
On Wednesday, Marcao saw his side get off to the perfect start with a goal from the spot after four minutes of play, although they did seem to sit back and allow a lot of pressure from then on.
In the end, however, a win is a win, and you will take it any way you can get it this late into the season, as they are nicely positioned to finish in the top half of the standings (currently in eighth) for a second successive campaign, which if successful would be the first time that they have been able to accomplish such a feat since the 2011 and 2012 seasons.
To climb up into a Copa Libertadores position, they will need to do something that they have only been able to do once since mid-September, win on the road.
Two of their final three matches will be away from home, although their final two fixtures are against sides who are currently in the relegation zone (Bahia and Chapecoense), so they should feel OK about their chances to earn some more points in those games.
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Team News
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Matias Zaracho and Hulk scored in their draw with Palmeiras earlier this week as the latter leads the league with 15 goals this year, two more than Michael of Flamengo.
Mineiro will not have Nacho Fernandez available for this one after he was cautioned on Tuesday and will be suspended, which will be a significant loss as he is second on the team with five assists this season, which is tied with Guilherme Arana.
Eduardo Sasha scored with only six minutes left back in August as Mineiro came away with a 1-1 draw versus Flu thanks to a nice set-up from Nathan.
Fred has scored in back-to-back games for the side from Rio, both of which came from the penalty spot just like his strike in August versus Atletico.
Marcos Felipe has stopped the last seven shots that he has faced, posting his 11th clean sheet of the season on Wednesday and putting him into a tie with Cleiton of Bragantino.
In their match this week, Marcao replaced Nino at the back with Luccas Claro, while Lucas Calegari and Wellington started in midfield rather than Matheus Martinelli and Andre.
Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Everson; Arana, Rabello, Silva, Mariano; Allan, Tche Tche; Borrero, Zaracho; Costa, Hulk
Fluminense possible starting lineup:
M. Felipe; S. Xavier, Claro, Braz, M. Xavier; Lucca, Wellington, Y. Felipe; Henrique, Fred, Paulista
We say: Atletico Mineiro 2-0 Fluminense
To win the Brasileiro Serie A, you have to show consistency throughout the year, and that is something that Atletico have demonstrated during this campaign, so expect to see them come out very determined to pick up another win in their quest for that long-awaited league title.
Mineiro have not conceded in three straight home contests, whereas Fluminense have not scored in their last four, so look for those trends to continue on Sunday.
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 70.13%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Fluminense had a probability of 10.97%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.05%) and 3-0 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.92%), while for a Fluminense win it was 0-1 (4.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
