The newly crowned Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A champions, Atletico Mineiro, will face Bragantino in their final domestic home fixture this year on Sunday from Mineirao.
Galo clinched the title with a dramatic come from behind victory, 3-2 over Bahia, while Braga are winless in their previous four matches in all competitions, falling 1-0 to Juventude at the end of November.
Match preview
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It took them a half-century to do it, but at long last, Atletico Mineiro have captured the Serie A trophy, their second in club history.
Thousands of loyal fans rejoiced the victory in Belo Horizonte in what has been a magical year as their manager Cuca described it, which seems a fitting term given what they had to do to claim the title, coming back from two goals behind, scoring three within five minutes to come out on top on Friday.
Galo always seem to have an answer for what opposing sides throw at them domestically, and they have shown a strong fighting spirit over their past few league fixtures, going behind four times in their last three games, but claiming seven points.
There are still two matches left to play before they can let their achievement in 2021 sink in, and it has been a special year, to say the last, with Galo losing only 10 games total in a calendar year of 82 matches.
While they have nothing to play for in Serie A at this stage, there is still an opportunity for them to pull off a domestic double for the first time in club history as they will battle Athletico Paranaense in a two-leg final for the Copa do Brasil later this month.
The job in between now and the middle of December will be to stay mentally sharp and focused for the cup final and tighten up defensively, an area that has been uncharacteristically poor for them in recent matches, with the top defensive unit in Brazil (conceding only 27 goals) allowing five goals in their last three games.
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A promising campaign in the early going has completely derailed for Bragantino, who have only won one game since the start of November.
Their movement up the field and quality out wide has been a significant trouble spot for them in recent matches, and Mauricio Barbieri seems to be running out of solutions.
It may not look like it right now, but regardless of where this team end up in the table, this season has been a positive step in the right direction for this club, as they advanced to the final of the Copa Sudamericana, and one more point would surpass their total of 53 from a year ago when they came in 10th.
Braga are winless in their last seven road matches if you include their Copa Sudamericana defeat in Montevideo, and they have not scored in four consecutive league games away from home.
What was their strong suit throughout the campaign has turned into an Achilles heel of sorts in recent matches, as they have not been able to find their mark in the final third away from home, only firing five shots on target in their previous three road fixtures.
They are currently in line to be a part of the Copa Libertadores qualifiers next year, although a guaranteed spot in the group stage of that competition is still attainable as well, trailing Corinthians for that position by three points.
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Team News
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Keno scored his first two goals of the year in league play on Thursday, enabling Atletico to clinch the title, while Hulk scored the equaliser versus Bahia from the penalty spot, his league-leading 18th of the campaign.
Everson has allowed five goals in his last three starts in goal but still leads Serie A in clean sheets with 16, two more than Fernando Miguel, Tiago Volpi and Walter.
Cuca made three changes to their starting 11 on Friday with Tche Tche and Nacho Fernandez replacing Jair and Allan in the midfield, with Eduardo Vargas getting the start in attack in place of Diego Costa.
Leo Realpe could be missing some time for Braga as the centre-back has a knee injury, while Fabricio Bruno will have to be careful not to earn another booking which could put him out of the lineup for their final league fixture against Internacional.
Alerrandro, who had five goals in the Braga domestic campaign a season ago, including one versus Atletico, has not found the back of the net in 2021 as he has been overshadowed by the likes of Ytalo, who leads the team with 11 goals this year, while Arthur has nine and leads the way in assists with eight.
Barbieri made one change from their starting lineup on Tuesday compared to the side which began in their draw with America Mineiro, as Emiliano Martinez played as a holding midfielder rather than Helinho.
Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Everson; Dodo, Alonso, Silva, Mariano; Tche Tche, Fernandez; Nathan, Keno; Hulk, Costa
Bragantino possible starting lineup:
Cleiton; Candido, Ortiz, Bruno, Aderlan; Helinho, Jadsom; Cuello, Praxedes, Arthur; Ytalo
We say: Atletico Mineiro 1-1 Bragantino
Bragantino have struggled to score goals, especially away from home, but they could be playing Galo at a good time as the Brazilian champions have nothing to play for domestically except for the Copa do Brasil, so they may not push themselves as hard as Bragantino.
Even though Braga have more to play for, they are in a slump and struggling to find many attacking solutions at the moment.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 67.24%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for Bragantino had a probability of 12.73%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.82%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.49%), while for a Bragantino win it was 0-1 (4.71%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
