League leaders Atletico Madrid will travel to the Mediterranean coast this weekend for their La Liga clash with Elche at the Estadio Manuel Martinez Valero.
Following a string of poor results in recent weeks, Atleti's title hopes hang in the balance, with three points this weekend crucial to Diego Simeone's title bid.
Match preview
© Reuters
After leading the division for the majority of the campaign, Atleti have responded poorly to late charges from Real Madrid, Barcelona and Sevilla, often dropping points instead of solidifying their claim.
While Simeone's tenure as Atleti boss has been wildly successful, there has always been an issue with how the Argentine's players respond to pressure, with the club losing out on major honours in the past.
This season, the nerves look to be kicking in again and clubs that come up against Atleti are beginning to exploit the club's tenuous position at the top of the table.
Last time out, against Athletic Club, Simeone's men were bested 2-1, with the Basque side looking far more resilient than their Castilian counterparts.
A major boost for Atleti could be the return of veteran marksman Luis Suarez, who is likely to be reinstated in the starting 11 this weekend.
© Reuters
Under the stewardship of Fran Escriba, Elche have certainly improved as a team in the last few weeks and look very capable of avoiding the drop this season.
Escriba's main problem is that a number of Elche's relegation rivals have also upped the ante, with sides like Huesca, Real Valladolid and Alaves all in contention for top-flight survival.
Currently 18th in the standings with 30 points to their name, Elche will need to start collecting more points at home if they are to retain their La Liga credentials.
Last time out, Elche beat Levante 1-0, with fan-favourite Lucas Boye bagging the only goal of the game in the 32nd minute.
With four points from their last two league fixtures, Escriba will no doubt hope that his side can bring that form into this weekend's clash.
- D
- D
- L
- L
- D
- W
- W
- L
- D
- W
- W
- L
Team News
Atleti will be back at full strength this weekend, with Suarez back in contention and the much-adored Jose Gimenez also likely to be reinstated in the starting 11 after serving his suspension.
The return of these two could mean that Saul and Felipe drop to the bench.
Elche are also playing at full strength at the moment, with the likes of Boye, Tete Morente and Guti all giving their all for the side.
One absentee for Escriba's side is forward Guido Carrillo, who is out with a hamstring injury.
Elche possible starting lineup:
Gazzaniga; Palacios, Calvo, Gonzalez, Mojica; Morente, Guti, Marcone, Fidel; Boye, Piatti
Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Savic, Gimenez, Lodi; Trippier, Koke, Herrera, Carrasco, Llorente; Suarez, Correa
We say: Elche 1-2 Atletico Madrid
In typical Atleti manner, it will be a tight game, but we think Simeone's men will eventually come out on top in this tie. Expect archetypal finishes from the likes of Suarez and Marcos Llorente to seal it.
Top tip
Francis Buchanan
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 60.26%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Elche had a probability of 16.38%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.24%) and 1-2 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.93%), while for a Elche win it was 1-0 (6.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Atletico Madrid in this match.
