Atletico Madrid travel to Osasuna on Saturday, as the defending champions aim to strengthen their claim for a top-four finish in the La Liga table this season.
Diego Simeone's side suffered another setback last time out, losing to strugglers Levante to remain fifth in the Spanish top flight, while their hosts sit ninth after a 3-0 win last weekend.
Match preview
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After eventually finishing 11th in La Liga last season, Osasuna have laid a strong claim for a top-half finish this time around, currently sitting ninth after 24 games with a tally of 32 points, just 12 fewer than they managed in the entirety of last term.
That was largely down to an impressive start, as Jagoba Arrasate's side also had to endure a poor run for the final two months last year, failing to pick up a victory from a run of 10 league fixtures.
They have since corrected their form in impressive fashion, having now won three of their last five top-flight outings, firstly defeating Cadiz and Granada 2-0 either side of a defeat to Celta Vigo by the same scoreline.
The latter was followed by an impressive result against Sevilla, as Arrasate's men held the title-chasers to a goalless stalemate, before they returned to winning ways in style last Saturday, thrashing Rayo Vallecano 3-0 away from home thanks to goals from Jon Moncayola, Ruben Garcia and Kike Garcia.
That saw them leapfrog their opponents and climb to ninth spot, and, with the chance to rise another place at the weekend, they will look to topple the champions on home turf.
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Atletico Madrid will arrive hoping to avenge their latest disappointing defeat, in a season in which manager Diego Simeone will feel they have suffered too many.
After winning the La Liga title last term, Los Colchoneros will have set their sights on keeping the trophy at the Estadio Wanda Metropolitano, but, instead, they find themselves battling to finish in the top four, having earned 11 victories and 39 points from their 24 matches.
The low point of their campaign so far came in the form of a four-game losing run in the top flight in December, and, while the capital side were able to briefly arrest their slump, they seemingly have more issues to deal with, suffering another two defeats in the last three outings.
Los Colchoneros were firstly beaten 4-2 by Barcelona in a crucial meeting at the Camp Nou, seeing Barcelona gain an advantage in the top-four race before Atleti picked up a much-needed, if unconvincing, 4-3 win over Getafe, with Mario Hermoso snatching all three points in the dying minutes.
They were then handed a seventh league loss of the season last time out in disappointing fashion, as basement side Levante left the Spanish capital with a 1-0 victory thanks to Gonzalo Melero's 54th-minute goal.
That has left the Estadio Wanda Metropolitano outfit outside of the top four, and, while next week's Champions League round-of-16 meeting with Manchester United may allow them to correct some of the negatives suffered on the domestic front this season, they will be desperate to return to winning ways at the weekend to kickstart a revival in their bid to earn a place in next year's edition of Europe's elite competition.
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Team News
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After a dominant showing last time out, Osasuna are unlikely to make many changes for Saturday's game, with Kike Barja, Jesus Areso and Aridane Hernandez likely remaining the only absentees due to ongoing injury issues.
Ruben Garcia should keep his place in the front three after finding the net in that game, while Kike Garcia will hope that his goal off the bench is enough to earn him a starting berth.
Elsewhere, Arrasate should stick with the established midfield trio of Darko Brasanac, Jon Moncayola and Lucas Torro.
Atletico Madrid have several selection concerns to deal with, as Daniel Wass and Antoine Griezmann are sidelined by injuries while winger Yannick Carrasco should again miss out after testing positive for coronavirus.
However, they will welcome defender Felipe back to contention, after he served a suspension last time out, with Simeone set to decide between deploying a back three or keeping the duo of Stefan Savic and Jose Gimenez unchanged.
Veteran striker Luis Suarez has tended to be saved for Atleti's biggest games recently, and the Uruguayan could be preserved for the midweek clash against Manchester United, with Joao Felix, Matheus Cunha and Angel Correa all battling to start in attack.
Osasuna possible starting lineup:
Herrera; Vidal, D Garcia, Cruz, Sanchez; Brasanac, Torro, Moncayola; R Garcia, Budimir, K Garcia
Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Llorente, Gimenez, Savic, Reinildo; De Paul, Koke, Kondogbia, Felix; Correa, Cunha
We say: Osasuna 1-1 Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid have been far from convincing so far this season, and, with plenty of momentum and home advantage, we back Los Rojillos to earn a valuable result.
While Simeone's men will be keen to bounce back from a disappointing defeat, their attention may be divided with a key Champions League clash looming, and Saturday will certainly not be a straightforward affair for the faltering champions.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 50.09%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 23.86%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.73%) and 1-2 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.28%), while for a Osasuna win it was 1-0 (8.18%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
