Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Bilbao square off in La Liga on Sunday evening with just three points separating the clubs in the La Liga standings.
While Vallecano hold the advantage and possess a game in hand, Bilbao head into the contest at Estadio de Vallecas in the better form.
Match preview
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Life certainly has not been boring at Athletic Bilbao since the turn of the year with six matches having already been played in three different competitions.
Last week, Bilbao reached the final of the Supercopa de Espana with victory over Atletico Madrid, only to fall short by a 2-0 scoreline against Real Madrid in the final.
On a more positive note, progress has been made into the Copa del Rey quarter-finals, Marcelino's team recording a stunning 3-2 triumph over Barcelona after their opponents had initially equalised twice to take the game to extra time.
That competition remains a priority in their season, particularly now it has opened up with the exits of several big teams, but Los Leones still have their eyes on a top-six spot in La Liga.
At the start of 2022, four points were collected from fixtures with Osasuna and Alaves, now leaving Bilbao in 10th position and four points adrift of sixth-placed Barca.
Upcoming opponents Rayo Vallecano are one point closer in seventh spot, a consequence of just four points being accumulated from as many fixtures.
Although they claimed a 1-1 draw against high-flying Real Betis, Los Franjirrojos played 57 minutes of that contest at a player advantage.
Andoni Iraola's team have certainly had the benefit of the draw when it comes to the Copa del Rey with last Saturday's tie at Girona being their fourth in succession against non La Liga opposition.
Nevertheless, they came from behind to earn a 2-1 victory, Sergi Guardiola netting a double to add to the three goals that he has netted in Spain's top flight.
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Team News
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Iraola made several changes for the Copa del Rey tie at Girona, and the players who dropped to the substitutes' bench for that game could return here.
That would see Esteban Saveljich, Oscar Trejo and Randy Nteka all feature in the team, although Guardiola may keep his spot ahead of Radamel Falcao.
Midfielder Oscar Valentin is serving a one-match suspension for five yellow cards.
Marcelino will assess the fitness of his Bilbao players after they were taken to extra time by Barcelona on Thursday night.
Inaki Williams, Alex Berenguer, Mikel Balenziaga, Inigo Lekue and Unai Simon are all in line to return to the team.
Rayo Vallecano possible starting lineup:
Zidane; Balilu, Saveljich, Catena, Garcia; Trejo, Ciss; Palazon, Comesana, Nteka; Guardiola
Athletic Bilbao possible starting lineup:
Simon; Lekue, Vivian, Martinez, Balenziaga; Berenguer, D. Garcia, Vesga, Muniain; Sancet, I. Williams
We say: Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Athletic Bilbao
Both clubs are having to battle hard to remain in contention for European qualification, and that should make for an intense match on Sunday. We give the marginal edge to the visitors, who may be able to capitalise on expectations beginning to rise at their opponents.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 40.46%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 30.84% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (10.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
